ISW explains why Putin may use "historical borders" narrative
ISW analysts have argued that Vladimir Putin may promote narratives about "historical borders" to justify aggression against Moldova and Central Asian countries
This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Experts recalled that on Wednesday, February 22, Putin gave a speech at the rally for the Defenders of the Fatherland Day in Moscow’s Luzhniki, stating that there is currently "a battle going on for Russia’s historical frontiers, for Russian people." We heard this narrative before the start of a full-scale invasion.
ISW drew attention to the fact that Vladimir Putin did not make any other notable statements.
"The concept of Russia's "historical frontiers" could be used to justify aggression against almost any of Russia's neighbors, as well as Moldova and the Central Asian states that do not share a border with Russia, since all of them contain territory that belonged at one point to either the Soviet Union or the Russian Empire or both," analysts say.
It is noteworthy that the Russian dictator also revoked his own 2012 orders regarding the development of friendly relations between states on the basis of equality, respect for their sovereignty and territorial integrity, and Russia's obligation to actively seek ways to resolve the Transnistria issue on the basis of respect for Moldovan territorial integrity.
"The revocation of the 2012 decree does not indicate that Putin intends to attack Moldova—an undertaking for which he lacks the military capability—although it does point toward an escalation in his ongoing efforts to undermine the Moldovan state," the ISW added.
The risk of the Russian invasion of Moldovan territory remains; it might happen as early as 2023, but it depends on the course of hostilities in Ukraine – Moldovan Information and Security Service