ISW assumes why Lukashenko is talking about NATO's threat to Belarus 

This is stated in a new report by the Institute for the study of war (ISW).

Lukashenko claimed NATO is preparing to attack Belarus. He also accused Ukraine and NATO of increasing the provocations near the Belarusian-Ukrainian border and said that Ukraine is trying to draw NATO forces into the war.

"Lukashenko stated that Belarusian officials managed to deter a potential adversary from using military force against Belarus and that NATO is building up forces and intensifying combat training in neighboring countries," the report says.

At the same time, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin claimed there is no direct preparation for war and that the country will only defend its territory.

Analysts note that Lukashenko and Khrenin focused the information campaign on fictitious NATO aggression and provocative activities along the Belarusian border to remain the military in Belarus to defend from "potential NATO aggression". Thus they create information conditions for countering Russian pressure to enter the war in Ukraine.

ISW assesses Belarus' joining Russia's war against Ukraine as unlikely.