First wave of new Russian offensive exhausts itself: weekly military results 

Ukrainian military analyst, CEO of Defense Express military expert group, Serhiy Zgurets has shared his latest assessment of the frontline situation.

Bakhmut: the situation is difficult but stable

The battle for Bakhmut is the longest battle of this active phase of the war. We have seen a number of statements from the Ukrainian and foreign sides assessing different prospects for the city. We have heard Zelenskyy's statement that we will hold Bakhmut because it is absolutely reasonable. He relies on the approach of Ukrainian generals, who say that it makes sense to destroy the enemy there as much as possible. We have heard Lloyd Austin's statement that even if Ukraine leaves Bakhmut, it will not have any operational or strategic impact on the front line. We heard the statement of the NATO Secretary General that it is likely that the Ukrainians will leave Bakhmut soon, and it irritated our military. It does not coincide with the approach that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are taking today in defending Bakhmut.

The enemy is trying to advance in areas in the east in front of the Bakhmutka River. We have withdrawn to the right bank of the river and this allows us to ensure a fairly stable defense. Although the Russians tried to enter the city area via pedestrian bridges, they were driven out. The main thing now is to ensure control over the northern and southern flanks and prevent the enemy from closing the gaps that they are trying to form around the city.

We have maintained the supply lines to Bakhmut. Ammunition continues to be supplied to the city through Khromove and Ivanivske, as well as the evacuation of the wounded from the city. According to general estimates, the situation is difficult but stable. The Russian Federation does not have a significant advantage that would guarantee a quick continuation of the offensive and a breakthrough of the defense on the eastern flank. I think the approaches that provide for the further destruction of the enemy are rational. They are based on the assessments of our military and American generals.

Near Bakhmut there are settlements Orikhovo-Vasylivka and others. Currently, the enemy is trying to expand its northern flank, which hangs over Bakhmut, and ensure its advance on the road to Sloviansk. These actions are not essential for the effectiveness of Bakhmut's defense. The main thing is to be able to repel the expansion of Russian troops. Additional reserves have now been deployed here, and artillery is being actively used. A few days ago, there was a pause on our part regarding artillery. As I understand it, ammunition was being accumulated. In recent days, active actions have been taken to prevent the enemy from advancing, both in the north and in the south.

In the south, the situation looks more stable. The Ukrainian Armed Forces conducted counterattacks towards Klishchiivka, and they were quite successful. I think there is a certain plan to even out the wedge around Klishchiivka, where the enemy is holding out, and to do everything to secure the line between Kostyantynivka through our counter-offensive and then offensive actions.

Kharkiv region is one of the Russian offensive directions, Luhansk region is the defense line

The Kupiansk-Izium direction remains one of the two areas where the Russian forces are advancing. Children and people who cannot move around have been relocated from Kupiansk because of the threat of an offensive. Between Svatove and Kreminna, the main actions are taking place around the latter, where the enemy has accumulated a significant amount of military force, is using new models of equipment and is trying to move our defense line. However, the defense line remains stable, although the intensity of fighting remains extremely high. This is one of the areas where active hostilities will continue. In the area of Bilohorivka (below Kreminna), the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to conduct counterattacks. The enemy wants to push us out of there to take the entire springboard. The penetration of our troops to this area of the frontline bothers the Russian military – they understand what will happen if we have the strength to break through the defense and continue movement towards Luhansk.

Donetsk region: no significant changes near Donetsk, no new Russian tactics near Vuhledar

Avdiivka and Maryinka have been the focus of the enemy's efforts for a long time. These sectors are well fortified, especially Avdiivka. It shows how important the effectiveness and quality of fortifications are for withstanding attacks. Recently, the enemy has even been using powerful aerial bombs. These areas will continue to be under enemy pressure, but I am confident that there will be no significant changes in this section of the frontline. The Russian Federation lacks the forces to take offensive actions.

On March 10, there was a publication where former CIA Director General David Petraeus said that it is advisable to hold Bakhmut because of the Russian losses. He considers the ratio of 1 to 5 to be absolutely optimal. According to him, it is rarely possible to achieve such losses, especially when the enemy's resources are not unlimited. He said that now the Russians have one disengaged division that can be used to support offensive actions. This is about 25,000 personnel. This is absolutely not enough for the entire frontline (approximately 800 kilometers) to support actions in case of tactical or operational success.

There was also a report by the head of the US Central Intelligence Agency, who spoke in the Senate. She said that the Russians do not have the ability to turn their actions around Bakhmut or in other areas into operational successes. She did not rule out that Russia could plan a long-term defense after this wave of offensive. This is an interesting touch that defines the Russian strategy after the failure of the offensive.

The Russians will not have any new tactics near Vuhledar. They can only advance along narrow sections of the front through minefields. A step to the left or right means a mine explosion or our artillery fire. The Vuhledar area is sufficiently protected, although the enemy will continue to fight head-on, suffer losses, but push forward.

The Russian offensive is running out of steam as the Ukrainian Armed Forces prepare reserves 

We do believe that this large-scale offensive began in late January and early February.  This is the capture of Soledar and the first attacks on Vuhledar on February 8. I'm sure that Vuhledar was the main direction, and the other four were auxiliary. Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut and Maryinka with Avdiivka. The Russian Federation has been conducting offensive actions, and they are continuing, but only in the Vuhledar area they have some tactical success. It's not certain that there will be any at all. There is every reason to believe that the first wave of the Russian offensive is exhausting itself and there are minimal reserves to expand this offensive somewhere. This creates the preconditions for active measures to build up our reserves, which are needed for a major offensive while we hold Bakhmut. These reserves are not used to defend Bakhmut, because they are other brigades. There is an interesting article in the Economist, which cites sources as saying that Ukraine is preparing at least 18 brigades, about 60,000 personnel, which will be the main ones in the offensive.

Ukraine needs a million rounds of ammunition per month

Currently, EU countries are able to produce 300,000 rounds of ammunition per year. We want to receive 250,000 per month and believe that this is a quarter of our needs. To conduct counteroffensive actions, we need about a million rounds of ammunition per month. We need to look for them and buy or withdraw them from the reserves of the US Army and partially from NATO units in Europe. This will be the first step in substantial support for the Armed Forces.  The production scale-up will take six months or longer. At this rate, we cannot ensure the offensive, if we plan it, according to optimistic estimates, for the beginning of the third quarter. This is the 155 mm caliber Reznikov is talking about. We have already received 1 million of such ammunition, but this is for the entire period of hostilities. We also need ammunition for our Soviet tanks, 120 mm mines.

New weapons for destroying the Russian military rear and capabilities of the Patriot air defense system

Yesterday, the SBU released a video showing the destruction of the S-300 system, the Pancyr SAM and the TOR-M2 SAM. This is really some kind of new weapon. The ammunition swoops down at a 90-degree angle and then explodes quite powerfully. We can assume that this is a Phoenix Ghost or Switchblade 600 attack drone, which has a more combat part than the Switchblade 300. The main indicator is that we have a munition that can destroy valuable targets deep behind the enemy's lines. These include air defense systems, artillery reconnaissance systems, command posts and ammunition depots. The arsenal of Ukraine’s weapons is growing significantly.

The use of the Patriot system should not be an announcement, but a surprise for the Russians. When we shoot down a Kinzhal or an Iskander, it will become proof of its presence in Ukraine. According to estimates, the training will end in March. If the Patriot is deployed in Kyiv, it will be able to protect a radius of 60 km from ballistic missiles (Iskander, Kinzhal) and 160 km from any targets.