F-16s may join Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive - military expert Chernyk
Military expert Petro Chernyk told Espreso what the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces depends on and how Western weapons will help it
The first thing I would like to emphasise is that patience is the philosophy of our victory.
"The silence regime is a fundamental phenomenon of any serious operation"
What factors determine the counteroffensive, where and how it will begin?
These are very specific questions. I can answer the first part with certainty - the counteroffensive depends on the accumulation of forces and means. This process is ongoing. But to detail where, in what areas and within what timeframe is to provide the enemy with ready-made intelligence information. Even if we were to speak hypothetically or analyze the available information. The regime of silence is a fundamental phenomenon of any serious operation.
"The true artist of war is the one who can deceive the enemy and deliver a surprise strike"
How Western weapons will help us in counteroffensive actions?
It will help us a lot. A person has to fight with something, while the enemy is armed and has all classes of equipment, from small arms to aircraft.
Western equipment is better in every sense. Take the Russian Federation's BMP-2 and Bradley's M2 for example. The Bradley loses in only one way, in weight: The BMP-2 weighs in at 13.5 tons, while the Bradley weighs over 25 tons. In other respects, the BMP does not stand up to any competition. The BMP gun has a 500-round ammunition capacity, while the M242 Bushmaster gun (Bradley's) has 900 rounds. In addition, there are a lot of anti-tank weapons, while the BMP-2 has virtually none. The reloading mechanism is also important: the Russian BMP has problems with the fact that after firing a round, it has to leave the front line to reload, while the Bradley can be reloaded on the spot. In addition, the gun of the American vehicle equipped with an M791 projectile can turn a BMP-2 into a sieve within 2.5 kilometers. A Russian armored vehicle has to get at least a kilometer away, or even closer, to inflict damage on a Bradley. The same goes for armor. And this is not all the advantages.
You can go through every class of vehicle in this way. The most important conclusion is very simple: let's metaphorically imagine that a Russian-made Volga and a Mercedes are participating in a race. Which car do you think will win? That's all you need to understand about Western weapons and their advantages over Russian ones.
"There is a possibility that F-16 aircraft will join the counteroffensive"
In this case, can we expect to see F-16 fighters during our counteroffensive?
In my opinion, there is a high probability. Given that the Ukrainians have shown a highly intelligent quality of mastering the equipment - MIM-104 Patriots are considered very sophisticated machines that our military mastered mega fast. No one thought that we would be able to shoot down hypersonic missiles with them, and we won the match with a score of 6:0 in our favor. This is a great success of intelligence.
I think that Ukrainians will be able to master aviation systems in the same way within 3 to 4 months. If it's June and they say that F-16 training has already begun (and I think it started even earlier), then in the fall, when the first aircraft arrive and the weather is still dry, there is a chance that the aviation will join the counteroffensive. It is important to remember the main thing here: war is a way of deception. A true war artist is someone who can deceive the enemy and deliver a surprise strike.
"The level of professional training is very important. And here we outnumber the enemy many times over"
Are military personnel who have been trained in partner countries involved in military operations?
100% yes. In general, the training of our troops by Western allies is an unprecedented phenomenon in history. Tens of thousands of our defenders have gone through Western instructor schools. They have all been qualitatively redeployed, equipped and are waiting to be used, and some are already being used. We remember that the level of professional training is very important. And here we outnumber the enemy, but no one has canceled the enemy's numbers yet.
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