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Erdogan and Putin’s meeting will definitely not be fruitless - international expert Semyvolos

16 August, 2023 Wednesday
19:57

Ihor Semyvolos, Director of the Center for Middle East Studies, believes that the meeting between Erdogan and Putin may result in the revival of the "grain deal"

He shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

"The meeting between Erdogan and Putin will definitely not be fruitless. Otherwise, it simply will not happen. Obviously, there are active consultations on both sides. If Putin does come to this meeting, Erdogan will have every reason to say that Russia will return to the grain deal. There have already been certain signals from the US and the UN in this regard. Therefore, it is likely that a certain number of Putin's demands will be met," explained Semyvolos.

The expert emphasized that Putin will try to avoid spoiling relations with Erdogan.

"However, the quantity of these requests will fall short of Putin's expectations. Of course, if he can sell the fulfilled demands as a victory for his electorate, then this is his problem. On the other hand, Erdogan wants to return to high politics and become a global peacemaker. He positions himself as the world's chief negotiator. And this is very important to him. Putin is aware of this. He also knows about the risks if he does not fulfill Erdogan's demands. After all, as many experts predict, Erdogan's policy toward Russia could change dramatically," he added.

Russia's termination of the grain deal

On July 16, the last ship loaded with Ukrainian agricultural products under the initiative left the port of Odesa. On 17 July, Russia announced the termination of the grain deal. In response, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that it was necessary to continue using the grain corridor even despite Russia's withdrawal from the agreement. And Kuleba began urgent consultations at the UN.

On 19 July, it was reported that Ukraine was considering transporting food as part of the grain initiative through the territorial waters of Bulgaria and neighbouring Romania.

At the same time, the Russian Ministry of Defence issued a statement threatening ships heading to Ukraine's Black Sea ports. 

On July 25, the GUR released a report to the Russian leadership, which outlined the technologies used to prevent grain exports from Ukraine, indicating that the "grain deal" was deliberately disrupted.

On July 26, the UK Ministry of Defense reports that Russia has deployed a modern corvette, the Sergei Kotov, in the southern Black Sea to intercept merchant ships at sea. It patrols the transportation route between the Bosporus and Odesa.

Later, it became known that Russia was preparing aircraft and ships to block the Black Sea, detect and destroy ships. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin announces that after unilaterally withdrawing from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Russia is ready to replace Ukrainian grain and start supplying its own grain to African countries free of charge.

On Sunday, July 30, despite the termination of the grain deal, three civilian cargo ships of foreign origin passed the Russian blockade in the Black Sea and anchored in one of Ukraine's grain ports in the Danube Delta.

The head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, said that Ukraine would continue to export grain despite Russia's opposition. Certain measures are already being taken.

On August 9, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced his intention to resume the grain deal on an "expanded scale" and called on Western countries to "fulfill their promises."



 
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