Crimea or Kuril Islands: what is more important for Russia?

The question would seem to make no sense. In my opinion, the same could be said a year ago, reflecting on the prospects of a Russian invasion. And finally, what did we hear from the authorities at the end of 2021? About barbecues and a complete understanding of Moscow?

Therefore, innocent assumptions should not be treated so lightly. It is better to think about what could be the impetus for them to turn into a problem suddenly.

In recent days, there has been sudden talk in the West that the return of Crimea occupied by Russia will cost Ukraine a lot of blood. For example, The Economist notes that "Military operations in the Crimea tend to end in thousands of dead: in the last century alone, hundreds of thousands have fallen, primarily in the Russian Civil War and World War II, not to mention the huge casualties during the Crimean War of 1850  years... Military experts note that the peninsula's topography should make Ukraine think.”

“Why is the West concerned with the price of Crimea's return right now? Isn't it because Moscow is vigorously promoting its "peacemaking narrative"? It is promoting not only quasi-diplomatic ways but also Calibras and Iskanders with Ukrainian civil infrastructure.”

It is hard to disagree with this opinion. At the same time, the reference to the time of the Crimean War is not very correct in view of the modern capabilities of the army. Ukrainian strategists are already talking about 'surprises' in the process of de-occupation of the peninsula. In particular, General Zabrodskyi told The Economist: “There are other 'interesting' opportunities for combined force maneuver using ground forces, naval landings and air strikes.”

But…Why is the West concerned with the price of Crimea's return right now? Isn't it because Moscow is vigorously promoting its "peacemaking narrative"? It is promoting not only quasi-diplomatic ways but also Kalibrs and Iskanders with Ukrainian civil infrastructure. Just to force Zelenskyy to sit down at the negotiating table, and through mediators who play on the side of the Kremlin, and without the participation of other members of the anti-Putin coalition. Without leaving, however, the initial goals of the 'special operation'. 

Of course, there are circles in Europe and America interested in the 'pacification' of Kyiv and Moscow, regardless of the conditions, even the loss of Ukraine's territories. But the price of such a world is money because it will actually mean a delayed war, which Russia will allow as soon as it gathers the necessary forces.

By the way, it will fight not only in Europe. The American edition of Newsweek recently published the sensational news that in the spring of this year, Putin was planning an invasion not of Ukraine, but of Japan. Newsweek refers to a March 17 letter received by Russian human rights activist and journalist Vladimir Osechkin. An FSB agent with the pseudonym "Wind of Change" wrote: “Confidence that the countries (Russia and Japan. - Ed.) will enter the stage of acute confrontation or even war was high. Why was Ukraine chosen for the war as a result - the scenario has not particularly changed…”

"Wind of Change" named the exact positions of Russian helicopters that were waiting for a signal to attack Japan. Russia even began to prepare society for war with Japan. In August 2021, the FSB declassified information that during World War II, Japanese special services tortured citizens of the USSR. In September, Russia terminated the agreement with Japan on visa-free entry to the Southern Kuril Islands.

Why Putin changed the strike vector is unknown. Perhaps he was discouraged in the Far Eastern adventure by Chinese "comrades" who wanted a "regime of silence" to "solve the Taiwan issue." And perhaps the Kremlin boss remembered the consequences of the Russo-Japanese war at the beginning of the last century when the Tsushima disaster erupted into the first Russian revolution.

“Russia even began to prepare society for war with Japan. In August 2021, the FSB declassified information that during World War II, Japanese special services tortured citizens of the USSR. In September, Russia terminated the agreement with Japan on visa-free entry to the Southern Kurils.”

But the main thing - and this is emphasized by the author of the letter - “the war was inevitable for Russia due to the maniacal desire for war on the part of the leadership.”

This "manic desire" did not go down the drain. Putin continues to see war as almost the only way to maintain power. Moreover, a war with Japan would not require special diplomatic formalities - the countries have not yet signed a peace treaty after the end of the Second World War.

But... If the West is so concerned about the price of the return of Ukrainian Crimea, then why not use the trump card of the Kuril ridge as pressure on Moscow.

And in general, only Putin, Shoigu and God probably know how many more such plans of "Barbarossa" are gathering dust in the safes of the Rust General Staff. 

Therefore, Crimea and Donbas should be returned to Ukraine. Maybe at a small price.  Russian political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky believes that Russians will not revolt if Putin decides to leave Crimea. Because they don't care anymore. “If Putin does not hold Crimea militarily, Russian society will not protest against him and will take it for granted,” he says.

I would like to add that Russian society will have to "take for granted" a complete defeat with all the ensuing consequences. And pay in full for the adventures of his chosen dictator.

About the author: Ihor Hulyk, journalist, Editor-in-Chief of the Espreso.West website. 

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.