Trembita missile threatening Moscow: Ukraine’s long-range response to prolonged war

As a key part of these efforts, The Telegraph highlights the Trembita missile, which currently costs just $10,000 and can strike targets at a distance of at least 144 km. However, the outlet notes that Ukrainian engineers are now working on a new version of the Trembita, capable of covering distances of up to 650 km, allowing it to target critical sites in Moscow, the Russian capital.

Of course, this will be a more expensive missile than the current version under development, but it could significantly worsen the situation in cities like Moscow and create serious challenges for Russia's political and military leadership.

Naturally, such missiles are incapable of striking targets located deep underground. These will continue to be destroyed by Western-made missiles, such as the Storm Shadow, for instance.

In any case, the very fact that Ukraine has its own long-range weapons could change the nature of the war. In this scenario, Russia would no longer be able to intimidate Western countries with the claim that their assistance to Ukraine could lead to a direct conflict between Russia and NATO. As is well known, this is one of the main elements of blackmail used by Russian President Vladimir Putin in his attempts to halt Western aid.

Ukraine's efforts to develop its own long-range weapons also indicate that Kyiv does not take the efforts of the new U.S. President, Donald Trump, seriously, despite the many compliments Trump and his team have been hearing from Ukrainian officials in recent weeks.

Kyiv has realized that the new American president requires constant expressions of gratitude, and this has become the style of communication with him — both for Trump's closest associates and for Western leaders seeking to establish contact with the new administration set to take office in the White House on January 20.

However, serious doubts about the realism of Trump’s views on ending the Russian-Ukrainian war exist in the United States, Ukraine, and, most importantly, in Russia. President Vladimir Putin shows no intention of agreeing to proposals that would prevent him from destroying Ukraine and continuing efforts to weaken the United States and the entire NATO bloc. This makes it clear that Ukraine is preparing for a prolonged war with the Russian Federation.

If we agree that the long-range Trembita missile, capable of hitting targets deep within Russian territory, will be ready only by 2026, we can realistically estimate the timeline for the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the moment when Moscow — this same Moscow that could become a target for Trembita — might begin to consider the necessity of halting hostilities on the Russian-Ukrainian front.

Even if we imagine that Donald Trump might achieve some success in dialogue with Vladimir Putin and the two leaders manage to agree on certain ceasefire options that do not signal a crushing defeat for the civilized world in its confrontation with dictatorships, the danger of the Russian-Ukrainian war will still remain the primary challenge for Ukraine.

Neither Donald Trump nor other NATO leaders are prepared to provide Ukraine with security guarantees that would eliminate the possibility of another Russian attack in the coming years when Moscow restores its capabilities or simply decides the time is right for a new war with Ukraine.

Notably, such a "right moment" could coincide with the end of Trump’s political career. As is known, unless there are drastic constitutional shifts in the United States that could destabilize the country itself, Trump will serve his final term in the White House.

The idea that a new attempt to seize Ukraine could occur during a change of power in the White House is likely to become another key scenario for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his inner circle.

To prevent this deferred war in 2029, even if it ends in 2025 or 2026, from becoming a grim reality for Ukraine, the country must possess weapons that genuinely threaten not just the Russian Federation but specifically the Russian capital. As is known, stability in Moscow has been the main goal of any Russian leadership, both during the Soviet era and under Putin’s regime. The threat of instability in Moscow, the threat of shelling the Russian capital, and the threat of strikes on so-called decision-making centers, including the Kremlin, the Ministry of Defense, and the main center, the Federal Security Service, could halt Vladimir Putin's military preparations and force the Russian president to shift to a strategy of political and economic destabilization of Ukraine — a scenario that, as we understand, will begin the day after the suspension or cessation of the Russo-Ukrainian war and become another significant test of Ukraine's statehood between peace and new attempts to initiate armed conflict.

However, in any case, Ukraine has much better chances of winning against Russia in a situation where Moscow is fighting on the political and economic front, rather than in a prolonged war of attrition, which is currently the main tactic of the Russian leadership.

And this is precisely why long-range missiles should convince Vladimir Putin and his circle that they should stop hoping for victory in this war aimed at destroying Ukrainian statehood, and stop hoping for the goals that Putin set out in February 2022 when he began his war with Ukraine, which has now lasted for three difficult years.

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About the author. Vitaliy Portnikov, journalist, laureate of the Shevchenko National Prize of Ukraine.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.