Trump’s freeze plan could spark political crisis in Ukraine

This opinion was expressed by political scientist Andrey Piontkovsky in an interview with Anton Borkovsky, host of the "Studio West" program on Espreso TV.

“Putin may show some flexibility in negotiations and might not even insist, for example, on fully incorporating the so-called constitutionally proclaimed regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. For him, it’s not about territory but about control over all of Ukraine. His plan is to strike a deal with Trump for a freeze with guarantees of Ukraine’s defenselessness. Starting with what he has already been granted — namely, the condition that Ukraine will not join NATO — he will aim for the absence of military bases, supplies, and so on. Trump would include this in his plan. This formal agreement on a ceasefire under conditions of complete defenselessness would then lead to an engineered takeover of power in Ukraine. If Zelenskyy signed such an agreement — though he never would — it would provoke a massive political crisis in Ukraine, leading to calls for ‘national reconciliation’ or attempts to negotiate with the aggressor,” he noted.

Putin frequently reiterates in his speeches that Zelenskyy is illegitimate but that legitimate governing bodies exist, such as the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament). He claims he is ready to make agreements with the head of the Rada. This is all part of his plan. If Trump succeeds in imposing such a toothless freeze with “security guarantees” on Ukraine, a political crisis will arise in Ukraine, Piontkovsky remarked.

“Then Russian agents — just as they did in Crimea, remember, when they held a parliamentary session to install people who supposedly ‘invited’ Putin — will hold a Rada session, appoint a new speaker, and Putin will then declare: Zelenskyy is no longer the president, but here is the new head of the Rada with whom we’re making a peace deal. That’s roughly the plan,” he added.

According to the political scientist, Trump has already made two major political and methodological mistakes.

“First, in future negotiations over a freeze, he positioned himself not as an ally of Ukraine or as the leader of the free world invaded by the hordes of the evil empire and terrorist states, but as an impartial mediator who wants to stop some territorial conflict far off in Europe and win a Nobel Peace Prize for it. The second and more serious mistake is that Trump’s plans, voiced by responsible figures such as his vice president, for instance, are already circulating. These plans include offering Putin certain guarantees of Ukraine’s defenselessness. However, Ukraine’s security conditions must be discussed only with Ukraine,” he said.

Trump’s errors naturally cause significant concern in Kyiv. Putin has quickly seized this opportunity. For him, this is the ideal scenario — negotiating with Trump over a frozen conflict while imposing conditions on Ukraine that limit assistance from Western countries. Such negotiations have even begun.

“It wasn’t Putin who demanded anything from the West; it was Trump’s team that proposed Ukraine could never join NATO, and then something else. Putin cannot achieve the destruction of Ukrainian statehood militarily, so he is attempting to realize his ambitions through this method. However, this scenario is unlikely, as Zelenskyy would never agree to such a plan. But if some form of division or freeze left Ukraine defenseless, a sharp political crisis would emerge in the country, which, after three years of brutal war, is exhausted. This could create a demand for so-called peacekeepers, including Ukrainian politicians who might say: ‘Let’s negotiate with the aggressor; we need to save the Ukrainian people.’ This is the essence of Trump’s initiative,” Piontkovsky concluded.

• On December 12, the Presidential Office stated that Ukraine is currently not ready for negotiations with Russia to end the war due to a lack of weapons and clear guarantees that Russia would not attack again. 
• Earlier, Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed confidence that Trump wants to end Russia’s war against Ukraine as quickly as possible. 
• On December 16, Trump announced “some minor progress” in halting Russia’s war against Ukraine.