Zelenskyy’s “Azerbaijani gas” play: Strategic move?

The Resurgam Telegram channel, which gives experts' thoughts on international politics, explains why this issue is being raised now.

Today, the European Union is set to vote on extending sanctions against Moscow for another six months. But Hungary, led by Viktor Orbán, has thrown a wrench in the works, demanding guarantees from Brussels to pressure Kyiv on energy issues.

Despite Hungary’s tough stance, experts believe the sanctions will pass. Yet, there’s still the risk of surprises. For leverage, Orbán even blocked an EU resolution condemning Belarus’ elections — a move seen as shielding Belarusian leader Lukashenko.

Ukraine’s “Azerbaijani gas” statement seems like a strategic ploy. By hinting at potential gas transit, Kyiv offers Hungary a glimmer of hope. As one interpretation suggests: “Sanctions first, negotiations later.”

There’s no way an agreement on Azerbaijani gas transit could materialize in a day or two, the post notes. But the illusion of talks buys time. As soon as sanctions are extended, Kyiv can drag out any gas discussions indefinitely.

In six months, the landscape could change dramatically. Orbán’s ally, Slovakia’s Robert Fico, might lose power by February. Germany could form a tougher government by March. Even the U.S. position on Ukraine could solidify.

When the dust settles, the author suggests that Zelenskyy’s team could revisit the gas narrative, declaring: “It’s actually just Moscow gas, and we’re not signing.”

If Kyiv genuinely pursues the Azerbaijani gas idea, it would backfire massively. But for now, it looks like a calculated bluff: “Promises don’t mean marriage.”

• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is ready to secure gas transit from Azerbaijan when it receives the corresponding signal from Europe