Russia's military movements from Tartus: Will weapons be directed toward Ukraine?

He shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

“Currently, the main intrigue is where exactly Russia is transporting its military equipment from the port of Tartus. Two groups have finally loaded up and left Tartus. What is most interesting is where they are headed now. Will they return home, unload in the Kaliningrad region, or will they remain somewhere in the Mediterranean?” noted Lakiychuk.

The head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies Strategy XXI pointed out that after the Russians started retreating from Tartus, the Turks intercepted a civilian ship carrying Russian weapons in the Black Sea straits. This suggests that Russia won't be able to quickly navigate the Black Sea. The question now is: will Russia attempt to establish a presence in the Mediterranean, or will all these weapons be directed toward the war against Ukraine?

Lakiychuk explained, "If it's for a war against Ukraine, the route would go back through the Baltic, but Kaliningrad is now isolated. As for the Mediterranean, there’s only one option to consider — the ports in the Libyan cities of Tobruk or Benghazi. The Russians already have experience basing in Libya. However, Libya is currently embroiled in a civil war, and the Russians are backing an unrecognized government. These two ports fall under the influence of the Libyan separatist command."

Background. In 2019, Russia signed a 49-year lease agreement for the Tartus seaport. This port was planned to be used as a logistics center for trade, transportation of resources and military operations. Tartus was the only Russian naval base in the Mediterranean.

• Satellite images have confirmed that Russia is transporting military equipment out of the Syrian port of Tartus by ship.