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OPINION

Zelenskyy heads to Orban: why?

7 November, 2024 Thursday
16:53

With a high degree of probability, we can assume that in the 'mediator' race to resolve the war, Orban has pulled ahead—at least at this stage

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Moreover, the further expansion of the circle of mediators seems very likely.

I am sure that right now a wave of "ultra-patriots" will vent their righteous (and in many ways justified) anger at 'such a mediator.' But we need to understand a few things:

  • We are not the ones choosing the mediator in this case. We can work within coalitions that put pressure on the main players. These coalitions may actually be more important than the mediator themselves. Later, we may be able to expand the circle of mediators.
  • Knowing Putin’s strategy, two things should be kept in mind: he will drag out the process (officially, the Kremlin has already stated that it does not intend to negotiate until after the inauguration, though this is simply a formal statement). More importantly, Putin does not intend to play a straightforward game; he will try to entangle Ukraine in a 'big deal,' expanding the Ukrainian issue to a global scale. Therefore, Orban’s role is actually smaller than it might seem from the first point.
  • We are about to see a wave of reports about peace plans, which will serve as major irritants for Ukrainian society—a society that tends not to see shades of gray and struggles to distinguish a draft plan from a real plan.
  • Talk of a quick end to the fighting is an illusion.

Therefore, when we discuss future negotiations, let’s not fixate on individual facts, but try to see the big picture from different perspectives.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.

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