From defense to offense: key steps Ukraine must take to win war

Ukrainian military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko, writing for the Oboz.ua media outlet, analyzed what steps are necessary for Ukraine to move closer to victory in its war with Russia. 

In a recent interview, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, made an important statement: "Ukraine cannot win the war by only defending." This assertion is not just a military insight, but also a guiding principle for Ukraine's internal and external policies in 2025. 

But how can Ukraine transition from defense to offense, and what role will U.S. President Donald Trump play in this shift? What decisions are necessary, and how can Ukraine achieve them?

Since the end of 2023, Ukraine has been compelled to adopt a defensive strategy. This approach was driven by several factors, including the mixed results of the Zaporizhzhia offensive and the large-scale Russian offensive that began in October, along with the blockage of military aid from the U.S. due to political pressure from the Republican Party. This forced defensive stance lasted through much of 2024. However, the primary objective of this strategy was to exhaust the enemy, and in this regard, Ukraine’s defense forces have performed remarkably well. Russian forces sustained unprecedented losses, more than they had in the previous two years combined, and their losses in this conflict have surpassed those experienced over the past 30 years of Russian military engagements.

Despite the success of this strategy, defense alone will not secure a victory. Prolonged defense inevitably leads to territorial losses, which the public often interprets as a setback. Many Ukrainians struggle to understand that these losses are part of a larger plan to eventually secure victory. Victory is not simply about holding the line—it’s about reaching a moment when, after wearing down the enemy, Ukraine can shift to an offensive strategy.

Unfortunately, Ukraine is not yet ready for such a shift. I firmly believe that this transition will not happen in the next six months, and several key factors explain why.

Political climate

In the next six months, the global political climate will undergo significant changes, largely due to Donald Trump’s political maneuvers. The 47th president of the United States will shape global trends, and Ukraine must adapt to this new reality. The country will not just need to adapt, but also actively align itself with Trump’s policies. 

Diplomatically, Ukraine’s task will be to convince Trump that peace with Russia is a path to greater conflict and that the enemy must be destroyed when it is as vulnerable as ever. Traditional diplomatic methods will not work with Trump, a businessman at heart who constructs his foreign policy based on commercial logic.

For Ukraine to successfully navigate this challenge, it must shift the conversation from human suffering to business opportunity. Rather than focusing on emotional appeals about the horrors in Bucha, Irpin, or Mariupol, Ukraine must offer Trump clear business proposals. Trump responds to deal-making and tangible economic incentives, not the ideals of justice or victimhood.

What could Ukraine offer Trump that would be irresistible? One major opportunity lies in offering U.S. construction companies priority in rebuilding territories that were temporarily occupied by Russia. These contracts would be worth billions and span decades. However, these territories first need to be liberated from Russian occupation. Additionally, Ukraine could prioritize U.S. companies in the extraction of resources in newly liberated areas, such as shale deposits, ensuring that Trump sees the commercial potential in supporting Ukraine’s military efforts. Such proposals would appeal to Trump’s business instincts and align with U.S. commercial interests. However, these territories must first be liberated from Russian forces.

These types of business proposals, which highlight potential profitability for American companies, could secure Trump’s support. However, to persuade him, Ukraine must allow time for this strategy to materialize. This approach represents the political environment that Ukraine will need to create in its relationship with the 47th president of the U.S. It’s a difficult process, but it could provide the impetus for a devastating counteroffensive, one that could lead to the collapse of Russia’s imperial ambitions.

Internal climate

While external diplomacy is important, Ukraine faces significant internal challenges that must be addressed before it can successfully launch an offensive. One major issue is the shortage of personnel in the Ukrainian defense forces. The current forces do not have enough reserves to sustain not only the defense, but also to carry out large-scale counteroffensives that could break the back of the Russian occupation.

To solve this problem, Ukraine must overhaul its mobilization policies. The traditional approach of lowering the mobilization age to 18 is not a viable solution, as it would harm the nation’s demographics. Instead, Ukraine needs to expand recruitment options, including financial incentives for volunteers. These incentives could be as significant as offering 500,000 to 1 million hryvnias in one-time payments for volunteers, a move that would likely attract many recruits. Such a policy would be far more effective than relying on outdated and largely ineffective ideological appeals to patriotism.

Additionally, a more effective recruitment system must be put in place, one that provides a robust financial and logistical framework to support new soldiers. If 50,000 new recruits can be brought in with proper training, equipment, and morale, they could form a powerful and motivated force capable of launching a decisive counteroffensive.

Not only will the U.S. need to provide more military aid, but Ukraine must also ensure that it has the necessary human resources to mount a successful counteroffensive. Trump’s potential role in this is crucial—if he sees the commercial benefit of supporting Ukraine’s military efforts, the U.S. could significantly ramp up its aid in the form of weapons, equipment, and other resources.

Conclusion

Throughout 2024, Ukraine focused on weakening Russia, and while many in the public may not fully understand the goals of defense, significant progress was made. However, as we move into 2025, Ukraine is not yet prepared for a full-scale counteroffensive. To make that leap, Ukraine must secure Trump’s support by offering proposals that are commercially appealing to the U.S. business sector. Additionally, Ukraine must resolve its internal issues, particularly the shortage of personnel and the need for an updated, more effective recruitment system.

Ukraine cannot win the war by remaining in defense, but shifting to offense requires navigating a complex mix of external diplomacy and internal reforms. The success of this strategy will depend on how quickly Ukraine adapts to these new political and military realities. As we enter 2025, the stakes have never been higher—this is a fight for survival, not just of the country, but of its future.