Will Trump bow to Putin? This is nonsense - Polish lawmaker Kowal

This is reported by the sestry.eu website

Donald Trump became the 47th President of the United States. This presents a challenge for Poland and Ukraine, as the world plunges into an atmosphere of uncertainty and the unknown. Why do you think Americans made this choice and elected Donald Trump?

People in the U.S. are tired of the Democrats. Only 28% of Americans believe that things in the country are moving in the right direction, which is highly unusual in the U.S. However, no one in Poland or Ukraine should think these elections were about Poland, Ukraine, or Central Europe in general. Thinking this way is simply our own megalomania, unfortunately. The election results came from poor management of big cities, declining safety, and pointless tax increases.

That’s why the Republicans managed to win—not just Trump, but the entire party—taking control in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The Republicans gained an advantage everywhere, and this will likely continue until the next elections.

In Pennsylvania, both candidates counted on the votes of Poles and Ukrainians who live in that state and in other swing states, especially in the so-called "Rust Belt." Do you know how our compatriots ultimately voted, and how much impact that had on the result?

Exact numbers are unknown, but if we’re talking about these votes, it’s roughly 800,000 Poles, 100,000 Ukrainians, and 80,000 Lithuanians. Combined, these votes could have been decisive. However, it turned out that the Republicans’ advantage was much larger, so these minority votes, so to speak, didn’t have that much influence. In these “swing” states, the Democrats practically didn’t win anywhere. It’s a valuable lesson and a big wake-up call for the American Democrats.

And yet, this isn’t related to the war in Ukraine. Of course, when Americans heard Trump saying, “I’ll bring you peace,” they responded, “Yes, we want peace,” because to the question “Do you want peace?” every reasonable person replies, “Yes, I want peace.” But this doesn’t mean American families are sitting in their homes in the suburbs of Detroit or Pittsburgh, eating turkey and discussing what the situation in Ukraine will look like. Unfortunately, that’s not the case.

Kamala Harris and her team went door-to-door until the last moment, campaigning for the Democrats. At the same time, Elon Musk, Trump’s most famous supporter, organized a lottery right before the election, where people could win a million dollars. Global movie and showbiz stars campaigned for both candidates. Did certain elements of “show” in both campaign teams ultimately prove decisive?

Presidential campaigns are always a show, and it’s always been that way. The show was one way in the 1920s, and different in the 1960s, but it’s always happened this way. Every era has its own Marilyn Monroe. It’s nothing surprising.

“The main thing now is to understand that we need to be pragmatic in strategic issues and find common ground with Donald Trump’s administration.”

The initial statements we’re hearing—from people like Pompeo or the well-known Kurt Volker in Ukraine—are reasonable. Politicians in the Republican camp understand well that ending the war cannot mean satisfying Putin, and I hope things will move in this direction when it comes to relations with the EU and Europe. Trump’s policy will also likely demand more funding for defense, and from this perspective, Poland is a reliable partner for negotiations. We allocate over 4% of our budget to arms and ammunition, meaning military spending. We guard the border with Belarus and demonstrate that the issues Trump talks about are important to us.

On November 7, European leaders gathered at a summit in Budapest to urgently discuss Europe’s security under Trump’s presidency. What news is there for us?

This meeting was planned in advance. While the issues were discussed urgently, the gathering was not an emergency but a scheduled one, as is usually the case in the democratic world. Yes, this was the first meeting after Trump’s election, and it was also a guest meeting with Viktor Orban, a very unique European politician.

And now Orban feels much more confident as a friend of the president of the world’s most powerful nation…

I wouldn’t say that Orban is becoming a major power player. Donald Trump is a politician for whom sentiment and affection serve only as things to include in speeches when convenient. However, real politics remains a matter of state policy. Trump’s main partners will be the major European countries. The Republicans’ challenge, in large part, is that they simply don’t realize the EU has also changed and today spends heavily and provides support in the war almost as much as the U.S. does. This understanding will come with time.

Orban, Le Pen, Salvini, Fico, and other representatives of the right-wing forces in Europe are rubbing their hands after Trump’s victory. How might Trump’s leadership affect the domestic policies of EU countries?

The psychological impact of these elections can already be seen in Germany, where the fall of the current majority could accelerate elections there and bring the Christian Democrats to power.

Still, it may turn out that, after all the concerns, Trump will pursue a tough, transactional security policy, much less emotional than the Democrats’. Those now rubbing their hands may actually find themselves in trouble because they may suddenly see that Trump’s approach to dialogue with Putin is rather tough for someone they consider an ally.

"Trump, of course, will try to establish contact with the Kremlin leader and quickly reach a ceasefire. However, it’s unclear if he can do it or on what terms."

But look at what people around him are saying. For example, Kurt Volker says this could be a very tough deal for Putin. Trump sees himself as a winner, loves portraying himself that way, and will want to present himself as victorious over Putin. Does Salvini seriously think Trump will bow to Putin? That’s nonsense. There will be an outcome! Perhaps President Zelensky finds this hard to imagine right now, but those who think Trump will return to old ties with Putin upon entering the White House are bound to be disappointed. That won’t happen.

In a speech to voters in which Trump declared himself the new president, he announced his intention to end all wars, including in Ukraine. How does Trump plan to accomplish this?

For now, it’s unclear. Judging by his early statements, it appears that Trump will make an offer to Putin, which would entail that if the Kremlin leader doesn’t stop, he will arm Ukraine to a degree that will leave Putin in a worse position than he is now. But let’s be honest with ourselves before we worry: the Democrats’ policy under Biden regarding the war and containing Putin was criticized as too soft, and there was no clarity on the conditions under which the war would end. Nor was it clear who would continue this policy in detail after Biden.

Even if Harris had won, there was no guarantee that Blinken would remain Secretary of State. With each election comes a new president, a new administration, a new Secretary of State, and a new policy. From this perspective, after Trump’s victory, there are not significantly more unknowns than there would have been with any other outcome. We just got used to thinking that Harris's policies would mirror Biden’s. But no one gave any guarantees that this would be the case.

The Wall Street Journal publishes insights from Trump’s circle regarding the war in Ukraine. One scenario being discussed is freezing the war, with Ukraine agreeing to forgo NATO membership for 20 years. Is this the path Trump will take?

I really don’t know which path he’ll choose. However, it seems to me that, for the sake of his own image, he will try to avoid creating the impression that he’s surrendering to Putin. I think, first and foremost, he will want to show that he can come out as a winner. We’ll see if he succeeds. It’s a big question mark.

Do you think Ukraine will receive support and additional defense systems to shoot down Russian missiles? Will this winter, as Anne Applebaum put it, be a twilight for democracy?

This winter will be challenging, but Ukraine is prepared as best as possible. The energy infrastructure is badly damaged, so Ukraine will face energy issues regardless of the weather. Even if winter isn’t harsh, the infrastructure is in worse condition than two years ago. That’s why Poland prepared a support package and allocated funds so that Ukraine can purchase a significant portion of its necessary energy, covering around 8-10% of its needs. Additionally, we’ve arranged special systems to increase transport capacity as needed.

Many European reports mention the potential for a new wave of energy-related migrants if a crisis arises. We’ll see if that materializes, but we are prepared, and I get the sense that Ukrainians are well-prepared too. The scale depends on the front-line situation.

What final actions can we expect from Joe Biden, and what’s next regarding Ukraine’s invitation to NATO and the U.S. role in the Alliance?

The United States will remain in NATO. Whether and when Ukraine will join the Alliance, and under what terms, will be decided in negotiations about ending hostilities.

“I would like to emphasize that this is about stopping the fighting, not about peace, because peace is the result of a peace treaty.”

Right now, there is no room for peace. I can’t imagine anyone agreeing to legitimize a forceful change of borders. There is potential for a ceasefire and a truce, which is different. Combat would cease, allowing opportunities for rebuilding. This is actually possible, and in the background, NATO membership guarantees for Ukraine will likely be part of the package.

What tasks lie ahead for Ukrainian and Polish leaders due to the new American leadership, and where can both societies find hope?

After these elections, everyone seems to be talking about their fears, but I believe we need to act instead of fearing or thinking that hope vanished in Pennsylvania or North Carolina. I think we need to take a pragmatic approach to what Trump proposes and try to find synergy with him on issues important to us. This is entirely possible.