Why is Ukraine's FM Kuleba going to China?

Unprecedented, because since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war, there have been no visits of this level. There were meetings between the heads of diplomatic missions on the sidelines of various international conferences. There was one phone conversation between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. However, these contacts did not lead to any practical results. Even the visit to Beijing of Ukraine's First Deputy Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, who suggested that his Chinese counterparts send a representative to the peace summit in Switzerland, ended with Beijing deciding that it would not attend this conference in any format, demanding that a Russian representative be present in Switzerland, although Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov himself categorically refused to participate in the Swiss Peace Summit.

And now, at the suggestion of Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Dmytro Kuleba will visit Beijing. What can this visit lead to? To understand this, we need to realize the goals of the parties.

It is very important for Ukraine that China exerts pressure on Russia to end the war with Ukraine as soon as possible. This pressure should come not only from the West, but also from China. And, of course, it is important to reduce the level of military and technical cooperation between China and Russia.

Despite the fact that Wang Yi assured the Ukrainian minister on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference that China was not going to supply Russia with lethal weapons, I have much more confidence in US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who emphasized that 90% of the military arsenal that Russia is currently producing or receiving is related to Chinese component supplies. Yes, China may not supply weapons assembled, but it does its best to supply them disassembled.

And if the visit of the head of the Ukrainian foreign ministry leads to fewer of these contracts, it will be a great achievement. Although, to be honest, the supply of such weapons can be influenced primarily by the United States. There is not much Ukraine can do about it.

What are China's goals? Does China want the Russian-Ukrainian war to end?

At this stage, continuing the war benefits him by weakening both Russia and the West. Additionally, if Donald Trump, known for his tough stance on China, wins the US presidential election, Xi Jinping might see this as a reason for Vladimir Putin to act even more aggressively toward Europe. This could divert Western attention from the Asia-Pacific region and prevent Trump from focusing on issues there.

But at the same time, the Chinese president has another, no less ambitious goal: to expand his own sphere of influence, to create a project of the so-called Chinese Europe. This project is already being rebuilt, one might say, in full swing. During Xi Jinping's last tour of Europe, he visited both Hungary and Serbia - these are components of this project, which also includes Slovakia, Georgia, and of course Belarus. And here we need to realize how China generally sees the future of Ukraine as a country that is as big as Belarus, a country that is loyal to Russia, a country that will agree to the conditions that Vladimir Putin is putting forward for Ukraine. For Xi Jinping, these are logical conditions, because he absolutely does not want any American influence in Ukraine; for him, this is a hostile influence. He does not want Ukraine to be a NATO member. He would much rather see Ukraine, if not join the CSTO, at least join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization like Belarus, which would clearly indicate that it is on the right side of history, from the point of view of the Chinese leadership, and not with America, which is China's main geopolitical and economic competitor.

That is why Xi Jinping might be considering a resolution to Russia's war against Ukraine that would force Ukraine to de facto accept Russia's territorial gains. This could mean recognizing Russian acquisitions in practice, if not legally, while the remainder of Ukraine becomes a territory aligned with Russia.

But at the same time, and this must be realized, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping's intentions are different.

The Russian president aims to integrate the remainder of Ukraine into Russia using a "salami tactic," initially through a union state with Belarus. This approach was part of Vladimir Putin's strategy when he devised his "blitzkrieg" plan in February 2022.

But Xi Jinping has a different vision of the situation. He does not want Ukraine to disappear from the political map of the world. He would like to see another important part of "Chinese Europe" emerge - an arena for Chinese investment, a country that will lobby for China's interests in Europe alongside Hungary or Slovakia, but with a larger population and resources, and, of course, a country that will be deeply opposed to NATO, and if it joins the EU, will slow down any duties related to stopping Chinese goods on their way to EU member states. Such a Ukraine is absolutely satisfactory to Xi Jinping and the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. And this is the kind of Ukraine that Xi Jinping can talk to Vladimir Putin about ending the war.

And, of course, in this situation, China will be the guarantor of the existence of Ukrainian statehood.

However, Ukrainians will have to forget about democracy, about complicated relations with Russia, about the multi-party system, about European values, or try to implement it in a soft Hungarian version, when democracy seems to exist, but in fact it does not, because there is a regime of Viktor Orban, clearly built and connected to Chinese interests and Russian energy.

This is the kind of Ukraine that can be peaceful, while the other Ukraine, from the point of view of the Chinese leadership, must exist under missiles and bombs, because it cannot realize that China does not need an "American island" in Europe. 

So, what can Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi agree on? Nothing at all. But the fact that the visit is taking place reflects that both sides are demonstrating their willingness to be constructive.

Dmytro Kuleba and the Ukrainian leadership need this visit to show the Global South that Ukraine is looking for understanding with China, and China needs this visit to demonstrate to both the West and the Global South that it is truly neutral in the Russian-Ukrainian war, that Xi Jinping is not only kissing his friend and partner Vladimir Putin, but is also ready to invite the Ukrainian foreign minister to Beijing.

So both sides are interested in this tango, which will not lead to any real results after the Sino-Ukrainian talks.

Kyiv and Beijing have too different views on the modern world as such, on the future as such, on values as such. And here, of course, it is very, very difficult to reach an agreement. At least at this stage of Ukrainian-Chinese relations.

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About the author. Vitaly Portnikov, journalist, winner of the Shevchenko National Prize of Ukraine.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.