Why Assad's collapse could benefit Ukraine and devastate Russia

First, let’s bust a myth: if Assad falls, Russia will redirect everything it has in Syria to Ukraine, making things tougher for Kyiv. Honestly, I’m exhausted by how some overly traumatized folks turn every potential win for Ukraine into a looming catastrophe, echoing Russian narratives. Let me break this down.

Russia doesn’t have the resources to boost its efforts in Ukraine by pulling from Syria. Sure, they’ve got some aircraft stationed there. But in the war against Ukraine, the issue was never a lack of carriers — it’s always been a shortage of weapons. For missiles, Russia is already shooting what it produces, not what’s stockpiled. The same goes for bombs. Their only significant manpower in Syria — the Wagner Group — was pulled out back in 2022. For the past year and a half, Russia has been dragging mercenaries from there, not the other way around.

Now, onto the bigger picture.

The potential collapse of Assad’s regime is a direct blow to Russia’s image as a global player. Since 2015, Moscow has poured vast financial and military resources into propping up Assad. 

If his regime falls, it sends a clear message: even massive Russian support isn’t enough to guarantee the survival of its allies. This shakes confidence among Russia’s current and potential partners, like Venezuela and Belarus.

Losing Assad weakens Russia’s grip on the Middle East and the Mediterranean.

• Russia’s two key military bases in Syria — the Tartus naval base and Hmeimim air base — are crucial for controlling energy routes from the Middle East to Europe. Losing them would cripple Russia’s global military reach.
• Russia’s regional influence would take a hit, limiting its sway over countries like Turkey, Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. 
• Without Syria, Moscow loses leverage to pressure the EU through migration crises or energy manipulation.
• Syria also serves as a bargaining chip for Russia in negotiations with Iraq and Southern Kurdistan over reopening a controlled oil pipeline to Turkey and the Mediterranean. Without Assad, this strategic advantage evaporates.

For Moscow, its Middle Eastern presence isn’t just about oil; it’s also about countering Islamist threats to Russia itself. A desperate Kremlin may resort to riskier moves, like bolstering its support for groups like the Houthis, potentially sparking conflicts with Saudi Arabia, Israel, or even Egypt.

And let’s not forget the ripple effect. A weakened Assad means a weakened Iran, one of his key backers. Conversely, this boosts the positions of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United States, forcing Iran to divert resources to regional issues.

This power shift automatically strengthens Western nations and Ukraine in diplomatic dealings with Moscow. Previously, Russia used its role in Syria to justify its relevance on the global stage. That excuse is rapidly disappearing.

Whether Assad’s regime collapses quickly or drags out in a slow, painful decline, the outcome is clear: Russia’s influence will shrink significantly. Syria is no longer an asset in Putin’s strategy of chaos — it’s a burden. Moscow must now choose between investing heavily to stabilize the situation or cutting its losses and facing severe political, military, and economic fallout.

We’ll be watching the unraveling with great interest. What a beautiful fat black swan. 

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About the author. Yuriy Bohdanov, publicist, strategic communications specialist

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.