Trump's plan: speed isn’t the key to success

Trump doesn’t have direct mechanisms to influence Russia, but he needs to show a "quick peace" deal.

That’s why he’s reaching out to a third player – China. This is clearly stated.

"If Trump manages to bring Putin and Xi Jinping to the same negotiating table, they will both be playing against the United States. And this is exactly what Putin would want strategically – a new Yalta, dividing the world."

I think Trump's team is aware of this, which is why they’ll present this deal to Putin like a dream. They’ll also work to make sure Russia comes to the table in a weaker position.

Can Trump convince Xi to push Putin to back down? Theoretically, yes, but China’s profits from a Russia at war are greater than from a Russia that starts returning to "peaceful" relations.

All of this suggests that we (Ukraine) will become part of a larger set of agreements. That package is still being formed and discussed.

Read also: Trump may come, but he won’t restore order

The incoming administration has just started gaining access to intelligence data and is working on building a new foreign policy strategy, one that aims for multiple victories - and ideally, quick ones. This won’t be easy. And when it comes to Ukraine, it’s nearly impossible without changing the current approach.

Speed is definitely not the key to success (our president's team learned this in 2019). There will certainly be attempts, but I’m still convinced that in today’s fragile world, deadlines are often missed because new problems pop up much faster than old ones are solved. Israel, Georgia, and Syria are just some of the issues in the news right now. But what about the fighting in Myanmar, Nigeria, Sudan, Cameroon, Pakistan, or other places that, according to threat indices, could become new hotspots?

So, things are moving according to a scenario that’s still far from achieving the quick and just peace we hope for.

But we do hope the Trump team gives it a try. After all, every U.S. president has tried to "reset" relations with the Kremlin. But I don’t remember anyone doing it quickly and effectively.

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About the author. Viktor Shlinchak, Chairman of the Board of the Institute of World Policy

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.