Trump may come, but he won’t restore order

Most Ukrainians cling to the belief that “Trump will come, and he’ll fix everything.” It’s human nature — wanting to believe in a miracle or a magician who will magically “solve everything.”

A segment of Europe’s political class shares a similar sentiment, hoping the war will end and life will return to its pre-02/24/22 state. Both views rely on hope rather than facing worsening realities.

The Russian military machine is at full throttle, though cracks are starting to show — not in the core components, but pieces are falling off. Still, the train barrels ahead, racing toward its “H-Hour” to hit its intended station.

The Kremlin’s perspective is reflected in a recent interview with the “court oligarch” Malofeev.

Konstantin Malofeev, a Russian oligarch sanctioned by the West, told the Financial Times that Vladimir Putin is unlikely to accept the peace plan presented by Trump’s special envoy for the conflict, Keith Kellogg.

"Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and then tell him to screw himself because we don’t like any of it." That’s the whole negotiation, Malofeev said during an interview at a luxury Dubai resort. For these talks to be constructive, we shouldn’t discuss Ukraine’s future but the future of Europe and the world — that’s what he thinks. 

Meanwhile, Ukraine seems intent on following its own playbook — even floating the idea of presidential elections in May. I won’t dive into this idea because, frankly, I’m skeptical. Too many moving parts need to align, and the hurdles for halting military actions by February are immense.

The new White House administration doesn’t yet have a clear roadmap for ending the war in Ukraine. Not a “plan for Ukraine’s victory,” but simply stopping the war. It’s clear this plan might come with ultimatums for Ukraine, though whether it will sway Russia remains uncertain.

In two weeks, the world will shift into Christmas mode. During these pre-holiday weeks, expect shuttle diplomacy and lobbyists organizing parties and receptions. Big geopolitical decisions will likely be shelved until January when deadlines start “burning with blue flames.”

The world is gearing up for yet another loop we’ve seen before: Scholz and Putin negotiating, a possible U.S.-Russia summit, mutual accusations, and heightened tensions. The key difference is that the war has escalated to an even harsher stage. Whether any lessons have been learned is unclear because, from one end of the table, it’s the same players — aside from Putin — driving change.

We need to plan for the worst-case scenarios because preparing for the best is easier. The hard truths are right in front of us: years more of war — 2025, 2026, 2027... We’ll need to rethink how our economy, society, and state institutions operate. The focus won’t be on thriving but simply surviving.

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About the author. Viktor Shlinchak, Chairman of the Board of the Institute of World Policy

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.