Trump to face "significant сhallenge" in bringing Ukraine, Russia to table - U.S. diplomat

In an article for Foreign Affairs, McFaul recalled Trump’s earlier promise to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. According to him, since Russia's full-scale invasion, Kyiv and its allies have been cautious about pursuing negotiations, fearing it could be seen as a sign of weakness.

“Trump’s reelection now gives Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy greater freedom to engage in talks: he can argue that he has no choice,” McFaul wrote.

However, McFaul stressed that the current conditions on the battlefield do not favor negotiations. Neither Kyiv nor Moscow is anywhere near a decisive victory, and historically, wars either end in a clear victory for one side or in a deadlock.

McFaul believes that if Trump threatens to cut aid to Ukraine, Putin will have more reason to keep fighting.

"Advancing armies rarely stop fighting when their opponent is about to become weaker. If Putin senses that Trump and his new team are trying to appease the Kremlin, he will become more aggressive, not less," McFaul explains.

The example of Afghanistan 

The example of Afghanistan shows that U.S. negotiations with the Taliban during Trump’s first term failed to achieve the desired outcome. The Taliban didn’t honor the agreement and instead used the peace plan to strengthen their position and take back control of Afghanistan.

"Appeasement of the Taliban did not create peace. Appeasement of Putin won’t either. Instead of just giving Putin everything he wants - hardly an example of the president - elect’s much-vaunted prowess in dealmaking - Trump should devise a more sophisticated plan, encouraging Ukraine to nominally relinquish some territory to Russia in exchange for the security that would come with joining NATO. Only such a compromise will produce a permanent peace," McFaul argues.

Ukraine’s membership in NATO

Ukraine’s membership in NATO, according to the diplomat, is the only way to ensure lasting peace along the border with Russia. He believes NATO is the only entity that can provide Ukraine with reliable security.

“The alliance must issue the formal invitation the day Zelenskyy and Putin agree to stop fighting. After NATO invites Ukraine to join, member states must ratify the country’s accession quickly. Trump must personally signal his unequivocal support so that other NATO leaders do not drag out the ratification process,” the former ambassador suggests.

McFaul pointed out that the future U.S. president will have influence over Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico. He should use this leverage early in his presidency to push for a peace agreement and end the war.

"Neither Putin nor Zelenskyy will be easily coaxed to the table, and Trump might resent the imperative of having to maintain, and even expand, support for Ukraine as a means to force negotiations. But an endless war or capitulation to Putin would be far worse,” McFaul said.

• China believes the international community should help create conditions for "direct talks" between Kyiv and Moscow.