“It’s stalemate war, it needs to be brought to еnd”

If we sum up the views and statements of key Western figures after the U.S. election, it seems that Trump - and by extension, the West - may propose a solution for Ukraine based on a mix of the "Finnish" and "Korean" scenarios.

This would likely include:

• Temporary neutrality for Ukraine, lasting anywhere from 5 to 20 years, possibly until Putin’s death, when geopolitical circumstances might change. Finland faced a similar situation after WWII, losing territory and having to stay neutral until conditions allowed it to join NATO.
• De facto lost territories that Ukraine does not recognize as Russian, but Kyiv will only regain sovereignty over them if there is a major crisis in Russia."
• Close cooperation with the EU and NATO, although it will not include specific terms for Ukraine's full membership in key Western alliances
• Significant supplies of U.S. weapons, including long-range ones, to be used only if Russia renews its aggression.
• Money for the country's recovery.

This scenario of pausing the war, according to the new U.S. administration, is seen as preferable to the "war of attrition" that the Biden administration currently supports. As Republican Senator Marco Rubio, who is being considered for Secretary of State under Trump, said, "I think the Ukrainians have been incredibly brave and strong when standing up to Russia. But at the end of the day, what we're funding here is a stalemate war, and it needs to be brought to a conclusion."

To make ending the war possible, the U.S. might offer Putin several things:

• The gradual lifting of sanctions on Russia. Despite what some say, sanctions, especially in technology, are damaging to Russia and make its economy uncompetitive.
• Russia and Putin would be seen as respectable politicians again, able to sit at the table with other world leaders. Putin has long dreamed of "deciding the fate of the world" with the U.S. While Trump won't make that dream come true, he could create the illusion that Russia is back among the influential nations to bring a pause to the war.
• A promise that Ukraine won't join NATO, which Putin could present as a big win.
• The occupied territories will stay with Russia. There won't be a "peace agreement" between Kyiv and Moscow, but there could be a "ceasefire" similar to the "Korean scenario."

Thanks to such peace, Trump will be able to:

• To show a clear contrast with Biden, who, despite his efforts, has failed to bring peace to Ukraine or the Middle East. It's worth noting that, according to polls, Americans find Trump's “peace plan” more appealing than Biden's approach.
• To demonstrate the "cost savings" of American taxpayers. Trump often focuses on criticizing "unnecessary spending.”
• To push Europe to finally increase its military budgets and take responsibility for its own security. Trump repeatedly emphasized during his first term that Europe isn't paying its fair share.
• To focus on China, which Trump sees as a bigger threat than Russia. He believes the alliance between the two must be broken.

The most challenging part of this plan is the issue of guarantees - specifically, whether Putin will stick to any agreements made with Trump. Right now, the only clear guarantee seems to be the weapons Trump may provide to Ukraine. There are also talks about a "demilitarized zone" and a peacekeeping force with European involvement, but no U.S. participation. This idea is still unclear and may be unrealistic.

Ultimately, the focus should be on guarantees that the agreements are carried out. It's not just about Trump wanting peace in Ukraine, but about ensuring that any deals he makes are implemented. Otherwise, one of his key campaign promises will be seen as empty rhetoric. And for someone who prides himself on strong leadership, Trump can’t afford such a failure.

Source

About the author. Serhii Taran, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.