Trump’s stance on military aid to Ukraine takes drastic turn — diplomat Bryza

He talked about this in an interview with Antin Borkovskyi, host of the Studio West program on Espreso TV.

I never would have imagined that the United States could generate such a vast amount of conflicting, contradictory, and unsettling information. Right before our eyes, the global order established after World War II is being reshaped. We are witnessing officials being dismissed or pressured to resign across various U.S. government departments, along with major shifts in U.S. foreign aid, which has long been a stabilizing force in addressing global challenges. All of this signals impending change.

In your view, how seismic is the crisis the U.S. is currently experiencing and what impact might it have on Ukraine?

There is a political earthquake happening in the US government right now. It is not focused solely on Ukraine but on every country in the world and every aspect of the US federal government. President Trump has adopted a new approach and strategy in his first few days in office. It is difficult to believe that it has only been a week and a half, but he is pushing forward with sweeping changes across the board. His strategy is twofold: first, to throw his opponents in the Democratic Party off balance, and second, to send a clear signal to the US federal government and its employees that he is in charge. He wants to ensure that what he, perhaps falsely, calls the "deep state" does not make decisions – he will. He has stated that before any more money appropriated during the Biden administration is spent, his teams must review all expenditures and decide what will continue. Earlier this week, he also issued a temporary halt on all US government spending within the country, except for certain programs providing direct assistance to low-income individuals. This decision was met with strong opposition from several states, Democratic lawmakers, and even Republican governors. Facing this backlash, he ultimately backed down, agreeing not to suspend domestic assistance programs. However, regarding international aid, he has implemented a comprehensive review of all assistance programs. Despite this, he has made it clear that military assistance to Ukraine will continue.

On one hand, there is a clear shift in the geopolitical priorities of U.S. foreign policy. On the other hand, highly skilled professionals who played key roles in implementing presidential programs and countering Russian, Iranian, Chinese, and other aggressive policies are leaving various government agencies.

I don’t worry about the situation the way you just described it. First of all, the veterans of the Reagan administration have been out of the US government for a long time. So the people who are leaving now are experts, political appointees, and career officials from the Biden administration, the Obama administration, and the George W. Bush administration. I, for one, worked for four years in George W. Bush’s White House, although I left quite some time ago.

And that is exactly what Trump wants. He wants the US foreign policy establishment and the entire government to be controlled by him and by people who are loyal to him rather than by bureaucrats from an ideological era when certain taboos existed or when certain questions were off-limits. Instead, he wants to start fresh and without ideology. As you and I discussed in our last interview, President Trump has no fixed ideology. He approaches governance like the real estate developer and businessman he has always been. He wants to negotiate a deal today that might be completely different from the one he made with the same country yesterday if today’s deal is better for the United States. This mindset allows him to ignore, as you suggested, decades of important philosophy, such as the idea that NATO is central to US national security. That is why he was even willing to threaten the use of military force against a NATO ally Denmark to take Greenland. To me, that is insane.

It is dangerous. And, as I said in our last interview, the mere fact that President Trump made that threat or even suggested that Canada, another NATO member state, could somehow become the 51st state of the United States seriously undermines NATO’s credibility. That is extremely dangerous.

That being said, I don’t think he is any less committed to a peaceful long-term solution in Ukraine than Biden was. The difference is in their approach. Biden was very cautious about confronting Russia, whereas Trump is ready to do so.

He is also ready to confront Ukraine, suggesting that if President Zelenskyy does not negotiate in good faith, the US might not continue providing military assistance indefinitely. Similarly, he is threatening Russia by stating that if President Putin does not negotiate in good faith, the United States will significantly increase sanctions and tariffs to the point of severely damaging Russia’s economy.

Let’s examine the potential plans of a new Trump administration and how they compare to reality. Donald Trump has a sanctions mechanism that he could choose to reinforce. Russia could be pressured with severe economic sanctions. There is now talk of a 100-day window for General Kellogg to address Russian aggression against Ukraine, a phone call with Putin, and the possibility of a meeting with the Russian leader, either one-on-one or in an international setting. What are your thoughts on this?

In my opinion, the situation is much better than I had feared several months ago when we did previous interviews.

As you’ll recall, about a year ago, President Trump orchestrated a blockade to prevent the approval of what was approximately 60 billion dollars in US military assistance for Ukraine. As a result, the funds were stuck in Congress for six months. Now, as president, Trump’s stance is different. He has recently stated that the United States must provide Ukraine with significant military support for many years to ensure that Russia never attempts to attack Ukraine again. He has also said that he does not believe Ukraine should join NATO. However, at the very least, he is now acknowledging that the United States must ensure Ukraine can deter Russia in the future.

Regarding General Kellogg, I think he is a realist. He understood that ending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine within 24 hours was never going to be possible. I believe he is now adjusting his negotiating plan. However, both he and President Trump recognize that the ultimate goal is an agreement – a deal.

Trump is a dealmaker. He knows that if any proposal is politically unacceptable to the people of Ukraine, there will be no deal. That would make him look bad and damage his reputation. If he fails to deliver an agreement to end Russia’s war on Ukraine, it will make him look weak. So Trump is acting much more realistically than I had initially expected. Additionally, I think there has been some positive news in the past week. The Netherlands, the UK, and France are now reconsidering President Macron’s proposal from over a year ago. The idea is that individual NATO member states may need to deploy forces on the ground in Ukraine, possibly as peacekeepers, to deter future Russian aggression.

I believe Ukraine is now in a much better position than many had anticipated. At this moment, I think President Zelenskyy is sending a message primarily to President Trump, but also to the people of Ukraine. He is signaling that now is the time to find a dignified peace – one in which the killing stops. However, it is also essential that Ukraine secures a settlement that preserves its dignity. The real question is how to define what a dignified settlement looks like.

We all hope that Donald Trump will push for a deal that fully considers Ukraine’s interests. At the same time, Putin's ambitions remain clear. While he might be willing to discuss matters as far removed as the Panama Canal, that is not where Russia’s true interests lie. The Russian dictator is focused on expanding his influence over Ukraine, which goes beyond missile strikes to include establishing a loyal administration and implementing various filtration measures.

As we were discussing a moment ago, President Trump sees himself as a dealmaker and a highly skilled negotiator. His most famous book is The Art of the Deal, and he understands that for any deal to succeed, there must be both satisfaction and some level of dissatisfaction for each party involved. That is how deals work. One side must give up something to gain something else, and vice versa. He knows that he cannot expect Ukraine to concede too much.

He is not naive. He understands that Putin has ambitions in Ukraine, as you just described. That is why I believe Trump has made statements, including one shortly after his inauguration about a week ago Tuesday while signing some documents. He essentially said, to paraphrase, that Putin must make peace.

The Russian economy is in serious trouble, and if Putin does not agree to a peace settlement that is acceptable to Ukraine, the United States will impose severe tariffs. The Russian economy is already struggling, and from Trump's perspective, it cannot withstand maximum US economic pressure for long. That is his point of view.

Trump wants to force Putin to abandon some of his most extreme goals, such as maintaining control or sovereignty over parts of Ukraine. Now we have to wait and see what happens in the negotiations. This is ultimately a struggle for power with Trump using US economic leverage against Russia.

The US economy is much stronger than Russia’s. Combined with the European Union, sustained economic pressure could eventually break the Russian economy if applied at full force. The key question is how long the Europeans will be willing to maintain that level of pressure. As I mentioned earlier, Trump also acknowledges that the United States must provide Ukraine with military capabilities for many years to ensure it can defend itself after a ceasefire.

Regarding Panama, I believe that from Trump's perspective, he could not care less about what Russia thinks of Panama. He could not care less about what Russia thinks of any other country including Greenland or anywhere else. Trump is unlike any previous US president. He is ready for confrontation and expects his adversaries to back down.

By contrast, as you and I have discussed many times, President Biden often deterred himself, frequently stating that the US had to be careful not to provoke Russia into using nuclear weapons. Trump, on the other hand, openly asserts that Putin will never use nuclear weapons. To paraphrase his stance, if Putin does not agree to a fair peace with Ukraine, the United States will destroy Russia’s economy with tariffs.

Now, I do not know if Trump is right, but that is his perspective.

Based on your analysis, what would a favorable deal for Ukraine look like under the current circumstances? And conversely, what would be the worst and most dangerous deal that Donald Trump could be convinced to accept, one that might lead to increased pressure on Ukraine?

Trump will not be pressured by anyone to do something he does not believe in. He does not want a confrontation with Putin, but I think Trump believes that Putin is ultimately weak because Russia's economy is in disastrous shape.

Yes, the Russian economy has continued to grow, but it is breaking down. As we all know, the entire economy has now been redesigned solely for military production. That may work for a while, but it is setting Russia up for total economic failure in the coming years. When that happens, Russia will no longer be able to meet the basic needs of its people, as has happened many times in Russian history.

As I think we all realize, at least in your part of the world and in mine, Russian history has shown that when a war is unsuccessful, political upheaval follows. I believe Putin understands this, and Trump's team recognizes it as well. They are threatening Putin with an economic collapse that could lead to political unrest and ultimately endanger his hold on power.

There is a psychological battle at play here, and I do not think Putin could ever push Trump into doing anything. Trump sees himself as infinitely stronger than Putin. He views Putin as the weaker party in this relationship and is willing to intimidate him. I used to worry that Trump might negotiate a deal behind Ukraine’s back during his first administration because he overestimated Putin’s strength.

Now, I think Trump realizes that Putin is not as strong as he once believed and that the United States' most vital interests lie elsewhere. He wants to bring Russia’s war in Ukraine to an end and shift focus to other US priorities. He will not allow Putin to unduly influence him.

I am not a big fan of President Trump, as I have said in the past, but I think he is right about this.

What is Donald Trump’s stance on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy? In his tweets and statements, Trump often speaks highly of Russia, sometimes disguising his warnings in flattering language. However, he says little about Ukraine. The 47th U.S. president also appears to engage more actively with Viktor Orban than with Zelenskyy. In your view, how does the U.S. administration perceive the Ukrainian government?

I think that is true. When it comes to President Zelenskyy, President Trump has suggested that he does not trust him. He has called him the ultimate showman, saying he is skilled at extracting large sums of money from the United States government.

I think Trump is still angry that his first impeachment stemmed from a conversation he had with President Zelenskyy. Trump believed he could intimidate Zelenskyy into providing negative information about Hunter Biden and Joe Biden. When Zelenskyy refused, the conversation was leaked, and it appeared as though Trump was attempting to blackmail him. As a result, Trump got into serious trouble.

However, I also think that deep down Trump's respect for Zelenskyy increased because Zelenskyy stood up to him. Unlike Viktor Orbán, who visited Mar-a-Lago and acted sycophantically, showering Trump with exaggerated praise, Zelenskyy refused to play along.

I believe Trump enjoys being complimented but does not respect foreign leaders who overdo it and behave sycophantically. There was evidence of this attitude toward Orbán just yesterday or in the past few days.

As everyone who follows Ukraine knows, Viktor Orbán had been threatening to block the latest round of European Union sanctions on Russia, the sixteenth round, intended to penalize Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. He was apparently waiting to see whether Trump would signal support for easing sanctions on Russia.

However, as soon as Trump stated that in the upcoming negotiations between Russia and Ukraine the United States would increase pressure on Russia through sanctions, Orbán realized Trump was not going to do what he wanted. Orbán had hoped for reduced sanctions on Russia, but when that did not happen he was left without support. As a result, he backed down and withdrew his objections to the European Union’s new round of sanctions on Russia.

I think Trump's psychology is very complex. He likes to be complimented but dislikes excessive flattery. Sometimes when he highly praises someone it is actually a sign that he sees them as weak.