Espreso. Global
OPINION

West's "phoney war" cannot last long

17 December, 2023 Sunday
17:00

The main news of the year of world politics is that the future of the world order and the role of the West in it now directly depends on the outcome of the war in Ukraine

The only question is how quickly the West will realize this.

In wars between democracies and authoritarian regimes, the latter have always had the advantage of acting quickly. Democracies, on the other hand, have always hesitated, worried about ratings, and stubbornly refused to leave their comfort zones.

This phase of hesitation is first and best described by the term "phoney war," which took place at the very beginning of World War II when the West formally declared war on Hitler's Germany in response to the attack on Poland but did nothing. Hitler used this lull to occupy Poland with Stalin, launch a campaign in Denmark and Norway, and prepare to invade France.

The West is waging the same "phoney war" now, with unquestioning and large-scale support for Ukraine strangely combined with Western details in Russian missiles and cynical debates in Western parliaments on whether to support Ukraine.

The good news is that the period of the "phoney war" cannot last long. Right now, its decisive battles are taking place on all possible diplomatic and non-public platforms. They are taking place in the political arena of Europe, where Britain, Poland and, somewhat unexpectedly, Germany are expected to be on our side; they are taking place in the U.S. Congress, where Republicans have unfortunately begun to forget the Reagan legacy; they are taking place within the UN, NATO, OSCE, hundreds of international business giants who are still undecided about the value of blood money; they are even taking place at the car checkpoints on the Polish-Ukrainian border.

The best way for democracies to come to their senses is to let their own citizens participate in the war. However, if the "strange war" stage is prolonged, it will only be a matter of time.

If Russia's response is inadequate, we will face a new multipolar world with numerous local wars and global chaos.

Multipolarity is not the end of the world, of course, but it is the absence of reliable predictions.

Judged by strict standards, history will enter its great circle of global conflicts, redistribution of property and reassessment of all values. And Ukraine will be the starting point of this circle.

The good news is that the great circle of history will end with the victory of the forces of good - due to superiority in technology, money and education. But then historians will write that the beginning of Putin's madness was caused by the adolescent infantilism of Ukrainian society and the expectation of comfort in retirement by a benefit-weary Westerner.

Source 

About the author. Sergiy Taran, political scientist

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.


 
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