Espreso. Global

We can expect the agony of the Russian offensive. Military expert Serhiy Zgurets

5 April, 2023 Wednesday

As long as the logistics of supplying the Ukrainian defenders of Bakhmut are maintained, combat operations in the city will continue with the main goal of destroying Russian manpower and equipment

Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions

The Russian enemy is deploying all its reserves in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions to ensure the advance of its ground forces. The aggressor's top wish is to make at least some progress in these areas. They will throw what is left to Bakhmut and Avdiivka, but its offensive potential is limited to these two frontline areas.

Ukraine's General Staff reported that 47 offensive assaults were carried out by the Russian enemy over the day, 20 of which were in the Bakhmut direction. Previously, Russian troops were attacking with an intensity of at least 100 offensives per day. We realize how much the capabilities of the Russian Federation are being reduced.

In the near future, we will expect the agony of the Russian offensive and see how the Ukrainian army counteracts these offensives. As long as the logistics of supplying Bakhmut are maintained, the fighting in the city will continue with the main goal of destroying enemy manpower and equipment.

Preparations for the Ukrainian army offensive are underway

The conversations between the Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, are extremely important. This is because preparatory work for the Armed Forces offensive is underway. The needs of the Ukrainian army, as voiced by Zaluzhnyi in his conversation with General Milley, are focused on the weapons necessary for the offensive: armored vehicles and air defense. These components are extremely important to prepare for an offensive. At the moment, the pace of military equipment supply does not satisfy us.

On April 4, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference following the first day of the summit in Brussels that there is a need for ammunition and artillery to ensure Ukraine's advantage on the battlefield. The United States and NATO countries will work together to achieve this. This is an important period, and the pace of aid will affect the time and Ukraine's readiness to launch a large-scale offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in one direction or several. This discussion is actively ongoing at the level of NATO headquarters and in the format of conversations between General Zaluzhnyi and General Milley. These are extremely important emphases that are placed during the preparatory process of offensive actions.

The issue of Ukrainian offensive is now being discussed quite actively in the American and European political environment, and sometimes even excessively. Let's recall the words of the Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba that excessive attention to the successful conduct of a counteroffensive creates a paradigm of excessive expectations. And war can be different, so there can be different risks and challenges that may arise in the course of the offensive.

Optimistic experts in the West or the United States believe that a single offensive can achieve victory. This will not be the case. In addition to the offensive, there will be a series of other military actions aimed at pushing the enemy back to the 1991 borders. One offensive will not solve this operation. We need to prepare, and Ukraine's diplomacy needs to work, so that Europeans and Americans do not think too much that one offensive, with the cutting of Russian troops to the shores of the Sea of Azov, will defeat the enemy. This will be only one element of the offensive that the Ukrainian army is preparing today. These actions require significant systematic work, which is already underway. This includes training of Ukrainain military in the Alliance countries, obtaining military equipment and ammunition, as well as a planning process that should clearly define when to launch offensive actions, in which place or places. And all this is happening against the backdrop of the Armed Forces simultaneously holding the Russian enemy at bay on many fronts and creating the preconditions for offensive actions.

Finland's accession to NATO

Now Russia will be actively rattling its weapons, because this is the only argument for influencing Europe that Russia has today. As for the aggressor's attempts to take some action on land, there is an interesting analysis of Finnish intelligence on Russian military potential. They noted that Russia, after the losses it suffered in Ukraine, will be able to restore its potential only after 2030. In fact, Finland realizes that it has time to effectively integrate into the Alliance's security structures. However, we know that today Finland is a self-sufficient country with a powerful army, and it was preparing to fight Russia alone before it joined NATO. Finland has also implemented the concept of total defense, which Ukraine should adopt in the future. But most importantly, Ukraine, like Finland, should become members of the North Atlantic Alliance.

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