Espreso. Global

Russia’s system will begin to self-destruct after sham elections

18 March, 2024 Monday

The peak of Putin's power has passed. Now the only question is the rate of decline


The elections of March 17 are the peak of Putin's power. Then the system will begin the process of self-destruction. The only question is how long this process will last.

1. From now on, Putin's main idea, and therefore Russia's, is not Ukraine, not a line in history, and not even rewriting history. Putin's main idea is to rule as long as possible in the status of emperor and die a natural death in his chair. Everything is now subordinated to this idea. Victories over America, Russia as the third pole - these are now secondary, subordinate things. And now, when we analyze everything that is being done in the Kremlin, we have to look at it through this paradigm shift.

2. The governance system, built as a corporation based on the competition of different towers of the Kremlin, is beginning to transform at an accelerated pace. In fact, without a transitional period, the system is entering the period of "neo-Andropland". And here we no longer have the Kremlin towers, but a political syndicate of about 15-20 elected people who become the regime's backbone (most of them security officials). But, unlike a political bureau, there are no collective decisions, let alone collective meetings. Everyone has their own fragment of power and authority. The corporate logic of management is being replaced by an individual one, with all the ensuing consequences. By the way, some members of the syndicate enter the new system as infallible, confident that they have an indulgence for any mistakes. Although, of course, after a certain period of time, as Khodorkovsky was once demonstratively imprisoned, one of the syndicate members may be imprisoned in the same way. But the purges will still not be massive, and so each of them will live in the paradigm: I am almost untouchable.

3. The new ideology of Russia, based on Putin's neo-imperial status, is "Putin." And the main slogan of Russia is "when I say Putin, I mean Russia, when I say Russia, I mean Putin." Of course, no monuments will be erected in Russia and no portraits will be hung in every classroom in schools. But in the media, movies, etc., Putin's presence will increase dramatically. He will be almost everywhere except for monumental art (although it is quite possible that a monument will be erected in some Chechnya.)

And now about why I think the peak has passed.

1. The system has been encapsulated, and the new syndicate, in terms of process management, is a return to manual control, which involves a much greater number of managerial errors than the Kremlin Towers system. In fact, it (the new system) will be based solely on the dominance of fear and slander.

2. Putin, of course, reserves the arbitration function as the basis for the legitimacy of the entire system. But he will not go into details; discussions will be limited to quarrels and the creation of situational alliances between syndicate members. For Putin, the result has always been, and is, first and foremost, the establishment of the process. But the failure to fulfill the tasks set before the launch of the processes will not (has not) become a reason for launching new social elevators to join the syndicate.

3. Russia's catastrophic technological backwardness. Without diversification of foreign policy, this backwardness will become a significant problem not only for the economy, but also for the ability to make managerial decisions in 3-5 years.

4. Taboo to even think about finding a successor. A successor is impossible in the current configuration, and therefore the planning horizon of the elites is Putin's death.


About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.

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