Espreso. Global
OPINION

Why no negotiations between Ukraine and Russia will take place now

9 July, 2024 Tuesday
13:16

About the whole track with negotiations and peace

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No, there will be no in-depth negotiations now. Marshall's axiom is a perfect description here. For any negotiations to take place, there must be real preconditions for them. Simply put, Russia must be rebuffed.

At the moment, Putin believes, or pretends to believe, that they have certainly been kicked in the past, but now he has the opportunity to wait and push. To wait until either Ukraine or the United States and Europe get tired of the war so much that he gets everything or almost everything he wants. Or rather, that Ukraine or the collective West will fall before he does.

At the same time, to provoke this fatigue, he tries to portray how everything is going well (when it's not), how he has inexhaustible reserves (when he doesn't), and how he's on the verge of capturing Kharkiv and Donbas (for two and a half years now). In essence, he continues to inflate his bravado and bluff.

Given that we passed our low point in the spring, but the upward trend in resources has not yet reached its peak, Putin still has time to sell these things. But the situation is unlikely to change radically.

Therefore, there will be no real negotiations until there are significant changes at the front or before the US elections. Unless, of course, a black swan flies into Putin's head. Which is possible, but unlikely.

The situation could be radically changed by the results of the US election. Whether this will happen is also not predetermined. First, Trump may still not win. Second, it is not certain that he will be able to change US policy toward Ukraine.

So we return to point one. For substantive negotiations to take place, Russia must be rebuffed. It has to suffer such losses on the battlefield or in the economy that it becomes impossible to continue the war. And the attempt to repeat it would cause fear that terrible Ukrainians live here, and it is better not to touch them.

Given the rhetoric that Zelenskyy has used against Orban—that he is waiting for Putin to withdraw his troops from Ukraine—there is a widespread understanding of this in Ukraine. Despite some politicians or citizens holding differing beliefs, there are no tangible signs of negotiations.

At the same time, we must continue to take steps to push the world toward the formula: "Ukraine seeks a just peace and an end to the bloodshed, but our adversary is unreasonable." This is the path forward.

Source 

About the author. Yuriy Bohdanov, publicist, strategic communications specialist in business, public administration and politics.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.

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