May 15-22 live war map: tough week for the Russian Armed Forces

According to the Ukrainian General Staff, the Russians' casualty rate over the past 10 days has increased by 30-40%, which significantly exceeds their current mobilization capabilities. In addition, Russian losses in artillery and vehicles that they use to transport infantry are reaching highs.

Not Kharkiv, but Vovchansk

After two weeks of the Sever occupation army's operation in the Kharkiv region, they failed to capture Vovchansk or come within an artillery shot of Kharkiv, which they tried to do near Liptsi. The Russian troops were unable to reach even the first line of defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In addition, they began to run out of soldiers, so they had to ask for help from the Zapad army, which is trying to break through to Kupyansk in the Luhansk region. As a result, the Sever group has increased by about 10 thousand to 60 thousand soldiers. Although, according to their plan, it was the Defense Forces that were supposed to engage their reserves and pull them back from the front somewhere in Donetsk region. 

Ukrainian Armed Forces have taken up defensive positions in Vovchansk along the Vovcha River. Fighting continues in the center of the town. The Russian troops began to use their UAVs on a massive scale, while Ukrainian aviation conducted several precision strikes on the Russian troops' concentration. For example, the central hospital was razed to the ground.

During the week, the Russian forces not only tried to break through to the other side of the river in Vovchansk, but also wanted to find a way to cross the river to the east and west of the town. Expanding their zone of control to the west, they occupied the village of Buhruvatka and approached the outskirts of Starytsia. Here, the Russians advanced to a distance of about 2.5 kilometers. However, they are moving along the border, not deep into Ukraine.   

With the attacks on Lyptsi, the Russian army penetrated 1 km deep and expanded the gray zone, but they still need to walk another 5 km to the village itself and break through the first line of defense. In addition, the Russian Armed Forces again tried to cross the border near the village of Zelene, where fighting is currently underway. To continue the offensive, they will have to ask for even more resources from other fronts, as it turned out they have no other resources.

Thus, the Russian Armed Forces have once again proved that they are incapable of conducting an offensive operation not only at the tactical level, but also at the operational level. Now their offensive in the Sumy region, which Budanov had previously announced, is also at risk of disruption.

Offensive in Luhansk region

After the occupation of Kyslivka and Kotliarivka a few weeks ago, the Russian offensive on Kupyansk via the R-07 highway from Svatove was stopped. Then, the Russian troops began to expand their territory of control near the recently captured village of Krokhmalne, where they managed to enter Berestove. Now the frontline runs along the water body in the center of the village. In total, the occupation army increased the occupied territory by 2 km to the west and 3 km to the south.  On the one hand, the Russians have concentrated the largest tank grouping in the Luhansk region - about a thousand units, which is 1/3 of all occupation tanks. So, they are preparing to break through to Kupyansk. But on the other hand, it is from here that the Russians moved some of their reserves to the Kharkiv region, so the offensive on Kupyansk may slow down again. Moreover, the equipment losses are 1 to 7 in favor of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Chasiv Yar. Russians pushed back from the town

A few days ago, Russia's forces gathered a lot of tanks, armored personnel carriers and other equipment and, as we expected, launched a frontal assault on Chasiv Yar. They were moving along two roads - from Khromove to the Kanal quarter and from Ivanivske to the southern parts of the town, where they had previously managed to cross the Siverskyi Donets River Channel. Near the Kanal quarter, the Russian units managed to advance 200 meters and again entered the first houses, from where they are now being actively driven out. The Ukrainian Defense Forces were able to completely stop the southern offensive group and destroy most of the equipment and infantry, as well as push them out of the town 300 meters to the other side of the channell. Nevertheless, Russian aircraft continue to terrorize the town, dropping dozens of guided bombs on it every day, and the Defense Forces currently have no means of defense. 

Post-Avdiivka front

Russian offensive almost stalled there. Near Ocheretyne, Russia tried to attack Novooleksandrivka and Sokil, but they were defeated. The Ukrainian Armed Forces remained in positions south of Ocheretyne, thus leaving themselves the opportunity to maneuver a counterattack on this fortified area. Near Novokalynove, the Russian Armed Forces continued to occupy the gray zone and reached the road to Kostiantynivka. At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces occupied the dominant heights in this section of the front and are shooting at the occupiers with artillery. By the way, no other brigade complains about the lack of shells, although there are not as many of them as they would like to have...

To the south, the Russian army managed to advance several hundred meters westward in the direction of Novopokrovsk. The only place where they managed to really get a result was the completion of the occupation of the small village of Netailove, located at the crossroads of the Pokrovsk-Umanske road. After the Ukrainian Defense Forces withdrew from there, the occupiers obviously also advanced in several places by a kilometer in the direction of Yasnobrodivka and the southern road to Umanske. All the "human wave" style attacks on Umanske resulted in burned vehicles and piles of corpses.

By the way, exactly in this frontline area over the past 10 days, the 110th Brigade has shot down five Su-25 aircraft, which are the main carriers of the guided bombs. So, the relevant assistance reached here the fastest. We hope it will soon reach Chasiv Yar.

Offensive on Vuhledar

The Russian troops have been trying to capture Vuhledar for a long time, but have been repeatedly defeated near the town. Just like this time, when they tried to attack from Mykilske. That's why they want to cut off the supply routes to the town and bypass it from the north. Step by step, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing in this direction by half a kilometer to a kilometer every month. This week, they came within a hundred meters of the village of Paraskoviivka and slightly expanded the seized territory south of Novomykhailivka. At this rate, the Russians are unlikely to ever achieve what they want. 

Counteroffensive in Crimea and strikes against Russia

It is clear that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing to liberate southern Ukraine and Crimea, and are systematically destroying military infrastructure and other facilities that work for the Russian army. Ukraine has started practicing attacks in waves with a large number of drones. Each time the Russians report that their air defense system has destroyed 100-150 of Ukraine's drones. And immediately afterwards, there are reports of critical facilities catching fire. In particular, for the second time this year, drones shut down the Tuapse refinery and the third time the Slavyansk-on-Kuban refinery, as well as burned down fuel oil and fuel terminals in the port of Novorossiysk and two oil depots near the city. Finally, the drones hit at least one Su-27 fighter jet at the Kushchyovskaya airfield in Krasnodar Krai and damaged the airfield's infrastructure.

In Sevastopol, ATACMS missiles sank the Cyclone missile ship of the Karakut series, which was launched only in 2021. It was the last ship that could launch Oniks or Kalibr missiles at Ukraine. All the others fled to Novorossiysk, and this one apparently did not fit. In addition, drones burned down a substation and left Sevastopol without electricity.

However, for Ukraine's counteroffensive, the most important was a double strike on the airfield in Belbek, where missiles and drones destroyed two launchers of the most advanced S-400 air defense system and a radar, as well as a command post and a storage facility for air-to-air missiles. And the next strike destroyed two MiG-31 fighters, a Su-27 multifunctional fighter, and a MiG-29. And this is only according to confirmed data. The true extent of Russian aviation losses is not yet known.  

The maps were created based on information received from the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff and other open and verified sources. At the same time, the maps are not as accurate as possible and only conditionally reflect trends in the combat zone.