Ukraine 99.9% sure Russia will quit grain deal in July – Foreign Ministry

She wrote about this on Telegram. 

“There are two main factors in my opinion: Erdogan successfully won the election. Mazepin reported to Putin that the terminal for ammonia exports from Russia is almost complete, which means that the Togliati-Odesa ammonia pipeline is no longer so important,” the ambassador wrote.

The Ministry of Infrastructure reportedly stated that there was another way out of this situation, but Trofimtseva did not see it: “But if we are talking about UAH 20 million allocated to compensate for damage to ships, then this is about nothing. And this is not a plan.”

Grain initiative: what is known

The agreement, known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative, was concluded between Russia and the UN and separately between Ukraine and the UN, mediated by Turkey, in July 2022 in Istanbul. It was then extended several times. In March 2023, Russia informed the parties to the agreement that it would extend the agreement for only 60 days instead of 120. These agreements were due to expire on May 18.

For its continuation, Russia demanded:

• reconnecting Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT
• resumption of supply of agricultural machinery, spare parts and service
• lifting restrictions on insurance and reinsurance plus lifting the ban on access to ports
• resumption of the Togliatti-Odesa ammonia pipeline operation
• unblocking foreign assets and accounts of Russian companies related to the production and transportation of food and fertilizers.

It is worth noting that the transit of Russian ammonia through the Togliatti-Odesa pipeline was stopped on the first day of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The total length of the Togliatti-Odesa ammonia pipeline is 2,418 meters, of which more than a thousand kilometers pass through Ukraine. The Ukrainian part of the pipeline is operated by Ukrkhimtransammonia, a state-owned enterprise, and the Russian ammonia delivered to the state-owned Odesa Port Plant (OPP) was previously exported.

On May 17, the grain agreement was extended for 60 days. The Russians' demands were not met.

Subsequently, Russian inspectors resumed the registration of ships to enter Ukrainian ports, but with violations, in particular, Russia ignored 56 ships that had been waiting for a long time.

On June 5, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin said that he saw no prospects for extending the grain deal.

And on Tuesday, June 13, Putin himself said that Russia was thinking of withdrawing from the grain deal because Ukraine was allegedly using grain corridors to launch maritime drones. Later, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the grain deal had no chance because the Russian part of the agreement had allegedly not been fulfilled.

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres is disappointed with the slowdown in inspections under the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the exclusion of Pivdennyi port from the initiative, as this has led to a decrease in the number of ships leaving Ukrainian ports.