UK intelligence names key factor in Belarus-based Wagner group's future combat effectiveness

This is stated in the report of the Ministry of Defense of Great Britain on Twitter.

"Wagner's ability to secure heavy equipment and enablers such as air transport will be key factors in its future combat effectiveness," the statement said.

British intelligence recalls that since mid-July 2023, at least several thousand servicemen of Wagner PMC are probably located in a military camp in Tsel, Belarus.

Satellite images recorded that since then hundreds of vehicles have arrived at the previously almost empty facility. Separate reports suggest that most of the vehicles seen are trucks and vans with a small number of armored fighting vehicles.

"It remains unclear what has happened to the heavy equipment Wagner used in Ukraine; there is a realistic possibility that it was forced to return these to the Russian military," the British Ministry of Defense added.

How the Wagner soldiers ended up in Belarus

After the mutiny of Wagner PMC leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in late June, the Kremlin announced the relocation of Wagner mercenaries to Belarus.

On June 27, self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko confirmed the arrival of Yevgeny Prigozhin in the country. According to him, Wagner mercenaries  who arrived with him will not guard the Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed there. However, Lukashenko emphasized that he expects the mercenaries to help in the defense of Belarus, without specifying the potential source of the country's perceived threat.

On June 29, a satellite recorded the construction of a tent camp near Asipovichy in the Mogilev region of Belarus, and on July 3, Russian media published a photo of an alleged Wagner camp.

On July 11, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense stated that the Wagner mercenaries would train the Belarusian army.

On July 14, media reported that training sessions with units of the territorial troops were taking place near Asipovichy (Belarus), where Wagner PMC fighters were acting as instructors in some military disciplines.

On the morning of July 15, a large convoy of cars and trucks with license plates of the so-called DPR and LPR was spotted in Belarus. Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service confirmed that those were mercenaries of the Wagner PMC.

On Sunday, July 16, the Belarusian Hajun monitoring group reported that two flags - of Russia and the Wagner PMC - had been installed at the checkpoint on the border between Belarus and Russia.

Wagner Group announced that on July 30, their main base in the Russian Federation, located in the village of Molkino in Krasnodar Krai, would be closed.

On July 19, a sixth convoy with Wagner PMC fighters arrived in Belarus.

On July 19, Wagner PMC financier Yevgeny Prigozhin addressed Wagner fighters in Belarus, calling the situation at the front a "disgrace" and urging mercenaries to "wait for the moment to show their full potential."

On July 20, it was reported that another convoy with Wagner fighters arrived in Belarus, which became the ninth since Wagner moved to Belarus, Belarusian Hajun monitoring group writes.

As of the morning of July 20, Wagner mercenaries continue to arrive in Belarus, but do not pose a threat to Ukraine.

Later, on July 23, self-appointed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko announced the desire of the mercenaries from the Russian Wagner PMC to "go on an excursion" to Poland. The same day, it was reported that the tenth column of Wagner's mercenaries, which included at least ten pieces of equipment, had arrived in Belarus.

The ISW stated that there is no evidence that Wagner's mercenaries in Belarus have the heavy weapons necessary for a serious offensive against Ukraine or Poland.

On July 25, the 11th column of Wagner's mercenaries arrived in Belarus, this time with armored vehicles. The convoy included at least 29 vehicles. It was also revealed  who led them in Belarus.

On July 27, the National Resistance Center reported that Wagner PMC units were looking for people in Belarus who were ready to fight against Lithuania and Poland. Also the same day Belarusian Hajun monitoring group reported that the twelfth column of Wagner's PMC, which included at least 50 pieces of equipment, had arrived in Belarus.

On July 28, 13th convoy of mercenaries with at least 80 vehicles arrived in Belarus. 

Poland and Lithuania have said they are considering closing their borders with Belarus over concerns about the presence of mercenaries from Russia's Wagner PMC.