ISW explains why Wagner PMC in Belarus poses no threat to Ukraine or Poland

This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

"Putin and Lukashenko amplified information operations targeting the West. The leaders amplified their false claims that Ukraine’s counteroffensive has failed. Lukashenko and Putin also reiterated an information operation that the Wagner Group poses a threat to Poland," the report says.

Senior Western and Ukrainian leaders and ISWs continue to believe that it is too early to assess a Ukrainian counteroffensive, as Ukraine still has significant uncommitted trained forces and retains the ability to launch decisive operations whenever and wherever it chooses.

"There is no indication that Wagner fighters in Belarus have the heavy weaponry necessary to mount a serious offensive against Ukraine or Poland without significant rearmament, as it was a condition of the Putin-Lukashenko-Prigozhin deal ending the armed rebellion that Wagner surrender such weapons to the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD)," the analysts noted.

On July 21, Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said that the country had decided to move its troops from the west to the east due to alleged threats amid reports of Wagner PMC mercenaries training in Belarus.

How the Wagner soldiers ended up in Belarus

After the mutiny of Wagner PMC leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in late June, the Kremlin announced the relocation of Wagner mercenaries to Belarus.

On June 27, self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko confirmed the arrival of Yevgeny Prigozhin in the country. According to him, Wagner mercenaries  who arrived with him will not guard the Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed there. However, Lukashenko emphasized that he expects the mercenaries to help in the defense of Belarus, without specifying the potential source of the country's perceived threat.

On June 29, a satellite recorded the construction of a tent camp near Asipovichy in the Mogilev region of Belarus, and on July 3, Russian media published a photo of an alleged Wagner camp.

On July 11, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense stated that the Wagner mercenaries would train the Belarusian army.

On July 14, media reported that training sessions with units of the territorial troops were taking place near Asipovichy (Belarus), where Wagner PMC fighters were acting as instructors in some military disciplines.

On the morning of July 15, a large convoy of cars and trucks with license plates of the so-called DPR and LPR was spotted in Belarus. Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service confirmed that those were mercenaries of the Wagner PMC.

On Sunday, July 16, the Belarusian Hajun monitoring group reported that two flags - of Russia and the Wagner PMC - had been installed at the checkpoint on the border between Belarus and Russia.

Wagner Group announced that on July 30, their main base in the Russian Federation, located in the village of Molkino in Krasnodar Krai, would be closed.

On July 19, a sixth convoy with Wagner PMC fighters arrived in Belarus.

On July 19, Wagner PMC financier Yevgeny Prigozhin addressed Wagner fighters in Belarus, calling the situation at the front a "disgrace" and urging mercenaries to "wait for the moment to show their full potential."

Later, on July 23, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus Lukashenko said Wagner fighters stationed in his country wanted to "go on an excursion" to Poland. Shortly after, it was reported that the tenth convoy of Wagner fighters had arrived in Belarus, including at least ten units of equipment.