This winter is last for Russian Empire

I have already written that this winter will be the last one for the Russian Empire. I must explain what it means. Of course, the 140 million inhabitants of our aggressive north-eastern neighbour are not going anywhere. They won't die, and they won't all be launched into space (I think you remember that old joke). People will stay, but changes will occur in the systems.

While the clans sort things out, the regions begin to fall away, plunging into a conflict of all against all

In a pessimistic scenario, the weakening of the central government, an open conflict between power groups and a reduction of power and corruption rent plunge the country into chaos. While the clans sort things out, the regions begin to fall away, plunging into a conflict of all against all. The risks of uncontrolled nuclear proliferation, ethnic cleansing, and a large-scale refugee crisis are growing immeasurably.

In an optimistic scenario, the current governing elites, with the help of national liberation movements, set up mechanisms for the peaceful dismantling of the Empire and reconstruction of the post-imperial space on the principles of fundamental UN documents, denuclearisation, peaceful settlement of conflicts, protection of human rights, punishment of war criminals and joint responsibility for Ukraine war. This path is spelt out in the Declaration on Decolonization adopted by the national liberation movements.

Tightening the screws, Stalinization or Iranization will result in nations and regions falling away. Loosening the screws, an attempt at liberalization will have the same effect

The second scenario is unlikely, but the ongoing coordinated joint work of the international community and the national liberation movements could turn it into an inevitable reality.

Any other scenarios are not very realistic. Tightening the screws, Stalinization or Iranization will result in nations and regions falling away. Loosening the screws, an attempt at liberalization will have the same effect

I don't say "two or three weeks" because it's a long and complex process. When I say that the Russian Empire will no longer exist next winter and the post-imperial space will welcome December 1, 2023, in a new reality, I may be wrong. But the dismantling process is inevitable.

About the author. Valerii Pekar, lecturer at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.