Terrorist attack on Kakhovka HPP is Russia’s attempt to exclude Ukraine from grain market

The emotional tsunami over the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant by Russia should not overshadow the long-term consequences for us. Human and animal suffering and environmental disaster dominate our emotions. But the impact on global food security will also be significant. The lack of irrigation and other problems will raise world prices, benefiting the Kremlin, especially in non-Western countries. Russia aims to remove us as a key player in the agricultural market. In this sense, the destruction of the dam is a long-term investment for Russia. Next week, when a group of African leaders visits Ukraine and Russia, we will talk about our sovereignty and values, while Russia will speculate on grain prices. And for the Africans, grain and fertilizers are the number one issue.

“Russia aims to remove us as a key player in the agricultural market. In this sense, the destruction of the dam is a long-term investment for Russia”

Russia has received another reason to pump out favorable terms of the "grain deal" - through the easing of sanctions on its exports. And unfortunately, there will be more than enough people willing to support it - under the sauce of "humanitarian concern for those who cannot afford to buy bread." The discussions will be very difficult, because we do not want and cannot alienate the non-Western world.

Russia now has another reason to negotiate favorable terms of the "grain deal"  through the easing of sanctions on its exports. Unfortunately, there will be more than enough people willing to support it under the guise of "humanitarian concern for those unable to afford bread." The discussions ahead will be challenging as we do not want and cannot afford to alienate the non-Western world.

The West and Ukraine need a common strategy to prevent Russia from weaponizing food as its trump card. Imposing a price ceiling on oil and oil products exported from Russia has proven to be a belated yet effective means of exerting influence. While the dynamics of the grain and fertilizer markets differ, it remains crucial to maintain sanctions on the Russian agricultural sector. Temporary exceptions for specific countries can be discussed if deemed absolutely necessary, but under no circumstances should we completely lift the sanctions, even temporarily. Doing so would create political difficulties in reintroducing them, allowing the offender to be rewarded instead of punished.

And, of course, Russia should then compensate us for all the lost crops, not just direct damage. Of course, this is a matter to be addressed in the future, initiating discussions on this topic is necessary already.

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About the author. Pavlo Klimkin, diplomat, former Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs.

The editorial staff do not always share opinions expressed by the blog authors.