Strategic importance of attack on Novorossiysk: Ukraine’s next potential targets

Defense Express analysts explain why the attack on Novorossiysk is important for the Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive.

The use of ‘kamikaze’ boats in the attack showcased their revolutionary capabilities, covering a remarkable distance of at least 700 km without encountering interference from Russian naval assets. Ukrainian defenders achieved a convincing victory at sea, inflicting significant damage to the Russian landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyak and possibly sinking the anti-submarine boat Suvorovets.

Russia's logistics come under attack

The attack on Novorossiysk holds significant strategic importance in the war against Russia. 

Since last fall, Novorossiysk has been a vital transshipment base for Russian military cargo to the occupied ports of Berdyansk and Mariupol, primarily using Russian Navy landing ships.

Thus, the Ukrainian Defense Forces likely targeted this enemy supply line by sea in their attack on Novorossiysk, continuing their strategy of depleting Russian logistics, which they had previously focused on land operations.

Missile carriers may be the next target

Missile carriers could be the next target, as suggested by satellite images released by OSINT analyst MT_Anderson. The images revealed that as of August 2, 2023, only 2 of the 9 Kalibr missile carriers in the Russian Black Sea Fleet were present in Novorossiysk. Additionally, 2 large landing ships and at least 1 formally civilian vessel, used by Russia to transport military cargo, were also concentrated in the area.

Furthermore, Novorossiysk is frequently utilized by the Russians as a positioning area for most, if not all, ships and submarines equipped with Kalibr missiles. This makes it likely that the next attack will target Russian naval missile carriers.

‘Kamikaze’ boats are becoming increasingly sophisticated

Regarding the ‘kamikaze’ boats used in the attack on Novorossiysk, they served as an effective "test run" for the Ukrainian marine drones. These drones demonstrated their impressive capabilities, hitting targets at a maximum declared range of 800 km. The onboard equipment successfully transmitted images from the optoelectronic station to the control station, evading Russian electronic warfare efforts. However, there are some challenges, such as potential instability with Starlink satellite communication for the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

The ‘kamikaze’ drones used in the attack may have also been equipped with an increased payload (up to 450 kg, according to reports), making them even more potent.

Anticipating new ‘kamikaze’ boat attacks, it is expected that the Russian forces will enhance their defenses, not only with physical means like containment booms but also with electronic defenses such as mini-radars. Additionally, they may continue experimenting with integrating elements of land-based electronic warfare stations onto missile corvettes for added protection.