Situation on the frontlines, new military aid package to Ukraine, NATO training: Serhii Zgurets' column

Northeast and Luhansk region

In fact, intense fighting and artillery shelling are taking place here almost along the entire frontline from Dvorichna, Kharkiv region, then along the Svatove-Kreminna line to Lysychansk, Luhansk region.

Now the main intrigue, as far as I'm concerned, is on the section between Svatove and Kreminna, in front of these settlements, the R66 route runs along the heights, which everyone mentions, and above Svatove there is a whole traffic intersection. This line is extremely important for the enemy, because it affects the railway arteries to and from Starobilsk to support the groups in Luhansk.

The terrain there is difficult: the river, the heights, and the bad weather now with rains, which inhibits the use of wheeled vehicles, plus active mining by the enemy of this territory and even the use of TOS-1 thermobaric heavy flamethrower system. That is, the enemy is trying to hold back.

But it seems that our troops, despite all the efforts of the enemy, have taken several hills to the southeast of Svatove, from which they can attack other heights where the Russian defense lines are located.

There is also data on combat operations in the area of ​​Chervopopivka, near Holykove, above Kreminna. If this information is reliable, it means that Ukrainian troops have already crossed the R66 road and reached the Krasna River.

The Russian forces tried to counterattack west of Svatove in the direction of Raihorodok, Ukrainian troops stopped this attack and then again approached this intersection near Svatove. So the situation there is very dynamic, and it is clear why the General Staff is not in a hurry to make any announcements.

Donetsk region and Bakhmut 

Actually, this zone, as well as Avdiivka and Maryinka, are almost the only zones in the Donetsk region where the enemy is trying to attack. The enemy has been trying to capture Bakhmut for about six months without success.  After the occupiers were knocked out of the Kharkiv region, Lyman and Izium, the military meaning of the attacks on Bakhmut seemed to have disappeared, but in the last two months, on the contrary, the enemy has intensified its actions with this army of Prigozhin and is still trying to gain a foothold and reach the southern and southeastern outskirts of Bakhmut. However, the Russian forces do not succeed.

By the way, in fact, what the Russian forces captured for months was returned as a result of the two-day offensive of the Ukrainian troops. Moreover, the positions of the Wagner PMC soldiers were repulsed, and different figures are already being called - it is said that the enemy lost about 5,000 killed and three times as many wounded in this area over the course of half a year.

There is a transfer of Ukrainian forces to this part of the front to strengthen our positions. There is a certain balance in artillery. Although, as we have seen, the fighters who are in this area say that more artillery and anti-tank weapons are needed. However, in general, the dynamics are quite positive and understandable.

Kherson region, right bank of the Dnipro River

The General Staff refrains from any announcements, but in general the dynamics is also clear. There is data on the destruction of Russian targets. And here the weather conditions also affect the process. However, by the way, they do not affect the work of the same HIMARS, so the fate of the Russian group on the right bank of the Dnipro River is clear, and it is only a matter of time.

However, yesterday, Deputy Chief of the General Staff Oleksii Hromov said that it is most likely that during the retreat, the enemy, in addition to mass evacuation, may also resort to a series of terrorist attacks with the detonation of residential areas and the transformation of temporarily occupied territories into scorched land with the task of causing critical damage to the infrastructure in order to return the territories to Ukraine. He also did not rule out blasts at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant connected with the Russian Federation's "dirty bomb" claims. So the Russian forces are insidious. They still have strength, so our successes on the front are not easy for Ukrainians, although the victory will certainly be ours.

Ukraine's resiliece forces NATO to take up arms

Right now, a number of NATO countries have completed several military exercises, in particular near the borders of Ukraine (Iron Wolf - in Lithuania, Puma - in Poland and Romania).

Training in Romania is 6 km from our border.  The US has already deployed one brigade of the 101st Airborne Division in Romania, numbering almost 5,000 people. And this is one of the most combat-ready and elite compounds of the US.

It is noted that NATO units want to master certain nuances of the Ukrainian army's battles with the Russian Federation. A unit of the 101st Airborne Division of the United States is on the territory of Romania to protect NATO territory, but in the event of an escalation of hostilities or an attack on NATO, they are fully prepared to fight on the territory of Ukraine as well.

I asked Defense Express editor-in-chief Oleh Katkov about the allocation of a new package of military aid to the Ukrainian military from the United States

Oleh Katkov noted that this is actually a small package, as we are used to figures of USD 1 billion, more than a billion. And currently we are talking about USD 275 million. This includes ammunition for HIMARS, 500 high-precision guided missiles (most likely, we are talking about Excalibur), as well as Humvees, RAAM missiles for remote mines and small arms samples. That is, USD 275 million is far from a record package, but it should be remembered that in October alone, the US handed over three defense packages to Ukraine, the total value of which is more than USD 1.6 billion. When we talk about such things, we must remember that in 2021, they received about USD 1 billion for all armaments of the Armed Forces. And here in a month - one and a half times more.

Does the US have a stock of Avenger anti-aircraft missile systems to transfer to Ukraine?

In Oleh Katkov's opinion, Avenger is one of the very useful air defense systems for Ukraine. It must be understood that it can shoot down targets at a range of 5-6 km, at the same time, it is an automated complex that uses its own thermal imaging station to detect targets, and its capabilities are sufficient to destroy such targets as, for example, Shahed-136 and even cruise missiles.

Mr. Katkov noted regarding the number of these air defense systems that we are talking about hundreds of units that are in service with the US Army and the Marine Corps, that is, it is quite difficult to consider them scarce. At the same time, they have been talked about for quite a long time, since the spring, they are extremely necessary for Ukraine's Armed Forces. While we have not seen them, we can only hope that Avenger will be given. Perhaps they are not included in the aid because there were not as many Stinger missiles as desired.  Because, for example, now the Pentagon has already ordered a new release of these missiles. And in fact, it turned out to be not so simple, because the technological base and elements from which these missiles were assembled have not been produced since the 1980s. And now it is only said that the production of the updated Stinger will be established within 1-2 years.

Will the US provide cluster munitions for Ukraine?

There is a really definite bias in the US that since 2008 the US has started to phase out cluster munitions because the samples they use have yielded about 3% unexploded ordnance. The US is not handing them over, but in the conditions of the current situation it is really important for us to get them, because now the world is faced with the fact that there are not so many artillery munitions, and the economy comes first.

In the opinion of Mr. Katkov, the US should revise its concept of assistance to Ukraine and, perhaps, supply not high-precision, but a rather limited amount of ammunition. For example, the last pack only includes 500 Excalibur, so it's not the largest number. At the same time, back in the days of the Cold War, cluster artillery ammunition was supposed to level the enemy in numbers. And, roughly speaking, one cluster projectile does the same job that requires several dozen conventional high-explosive projectile installations. And still, in fact, in the US army, the use of cluster ammunition is allowed, but under emergency conditions. In Ukraine, according to Mr. Katkov, exactly such emergency conditions exist now.

Ukraine's cooperation with other countries to create new weapons systems

Mr. Katkov noted that Ukraine needs the development of weapons resulting from the situation on the battlefield. We have become a training ground, the first country in the last 80 years, where a full-scale war is going on using all kinds of weapons, some even the concepts of those weapons that were developed during the Cold War, after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It does not work as we would like, so it is really necessary to develop those tools that have already proven their effectiveness conceptually.

Mr. Katkov means, for example, 'kamikaze' drones and the transition from the concept of quite expensive weapons, but of which there are few, to the concept of less valuable, but more massive. Moreover, now there is a shortage of weapons in the world, countries are simply lining up in huge queues. For example, Bulgaria is ordering an additional 8 F-16 fighters and the deadline for their receipt is 2027. Poland is currently investing USD 25-30 billion into its defense, buying up everything it has, and paying special attention to Korean equipment, which was not presented  in Europe at all and was not considered a bestseller on the world market. The country just needs weapons now, in the short term.