Сhanges in Russia's General Staff and Defense Ministry would mean that war is not going according to plan  – military expert Serhiy Zgurets 

This was stated by Defense Express CEO Serhiy Zgurets on Espreso TV.

"The role of Gerasimov in governance, as we can see, is more general and declarative. The appearance of videos with him and Shoigu indicates that there are no changes happening at the top of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the Russian Federation. And there will be no changes, considering Putin's approach to any personnel changes. Changing any of these leaders would mean that the so-called South-Eastern Front is not going according to plan. The entire Russian propaganda is built on the narrative that everything is fine. What's the point of changing anything?" he believes.

ISW believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not replace the Defense Minister and the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation to avoid the appearance of complying with the demands of the Wagner PMC leader Prigozhin.

Prigozhin's mutiny in Russia, agreements with Lukashenko, and the departure to Belarus

On June 23, Russian troops allegedly launched a missile attack on the Wagner base. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner PMC, announced a "march of justice" and stated that 25,000 mercenaries were heading to Moscow. Wagner’s fighters took control of several regions and were moving towards Moscow. In Moscow itself, defensive positions were established, trenches were dug, and all security forces were mobilized.

However, on the evening of June 24, the press service of the self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, released a statement in which the head of the Wagner PMC stated that he was ready to stop the advance of his mercenaries' military convoys, which were already approaching Moscow, and to reach an agreement with the Kremlin. Prigozhin allegedly agreed on this during a conversation with Lukashenko.

However, the financier of the Wagner Group reported that, before reaching 200 km from Moscow, Prigozhin and all his fighters leave the headquarters of Russia's Southern Military District. Russian leader Vladimir Putin promised that Prigozhin would be able to go to Belarus, and Russia would close the criminal case against him.

On June 26, Putin gave a speech in which he commented on the coup and offered the Wagner PMC fighters three options for future actions: join the Russian Defense Forces, go to Belarus with other PMC members, or return to their families.

On June 27, the Federal Security Service of Russia announced that it dropped the criminal case related to the armed plot, in which Wagner PMC leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was involved.

On the same day, the self-proclaimed President of Belarus confirmed the arrival of Yevgeny Prigozhin in the country. According to him, the Wagner mercenaries who arrived with him would not guard the Russian tactical nuclear weapons stationed there.

On June 29, satellite images surfaced online showing the construction of a tent camp near Osipovichi in the Mogilev region of Belarus. Radio Svoboda speculated that this camp could be intended for Wagner Group members.