Russia’s foreign policy concept: gas station behind fence, threats, and U-turn to east

The document is quite voluminous and interesting for several conceptual statements. Some of them describe Russia's desired place in the world, while others are devoted to the specifics of political activity. However, if we put aside the excessive correctness, we have a fixation of the status of a "gas station" that threatens everyone through the fence and at the same time tries to turn to the East. 

In the fifth paragraph, Putin defines the status of the Russian Federation as a "gas station country" with nuclear weapons: "Russia's place in the world is determined by the availability of significant resources in all spheres of life, its status as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UN), a member of leading intergovernmental organizations and associations, one of the two largest nuclear powers, and the successor state of the USSR."

“Putin defines the status of the Russian Federation as a "gas station country" with nuclear weapons: "Russia's place in the world is determined by the availability of significant resources in all spheres of life, its status as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UN), a member of leading intergovernmental organizations and associations, one of the two largest nuclear powers, and the successor state of the USSR."

The Kremlin clearly perceives the future world order as "multipolar" with several "influential and independent centers," with Russia being one of them.

The mechanisms for achieving these goals are generally "standard" - the development of cooperation and the role of international organizations. But there are several unique points, including:

     - "countering anti-Russian activities of foreign states and their associations";

     - "promoting the preservation of historical truth and memory of Russia's role in world history abroad." 

And a very interesting point about good neighborliness: "formation of good neighborly relations with neighboring states, assistance in preventing the emergence and elimination of sources of tension and conflict in their territories." In other words, Russia immediately warns that it intends to pursue a policy of interference in the affairs of its neighbors. This point is further elaborated in the section on the multipolar system. On the one hand, it declares Russia's commitment to approaches based on the equality of states, rejection of hegemony in affairs, non-interference in internal affairs, etc.

At the same time, the Kremlin sees the key task (paragraph 19 of the concept) as "eliminating the vestiges of the dominance of the United States and other unfriendly states in world affairs, creating conditions for any state to abandon its neocolonial and hegemonic ambitions."  

If we put aside the selectivity and the declared opposition to the United States, the hegemony clause could be perceived as positive. It could be, if not for Russia's inclusion of itself in the list of "leading powers" and the content of paras. 25 and 26.

In paragraph 25, the Russian Federation declares the possibility of using its armed forces to "solve problems of repulsing and preventing an armed attack on Russia and (or) its allies.” And also, to "protect its citizens abroad.” And here it is worth mentioning the policy of "passportization" that Russia has been actively pursuing in recent years.

In paragraph 26, Russia declares its readiness to "take symmetrical and asymmetrical measures necessary to stop... unfriendly actions, as well as to prevent their recurrence in the future." And the decryption in paragraph 28, where the Kremlin declares its work "to prevent (!!!) the emergence of security threats from neighboring territories and states." This should be multiplied by the content of paragraphs 43 and 45, which refer to the formation of a "common humanitarian space of the CIS," the spread of the Russian language and Russian culture, and even the "protection of the Russian Orthodox Church." In paragraph 49, the Russian Federation explicitly declares that it intends to prevent "color revolutions" and form a system based on "Russia's key role in maintaining and strengthening regional security."

Simply put, the Kremlin may perceive any attempt to pursue any policy other than pro-Russian in its neighborhood as a policy that leads to threats. And then, as we read the text, it may lead up to the use of military force.

“Any attempt to pursue any policy other than pro-Russian in its neighborhood as a policy that leads to threats. And then, as we read the text, it may lead up to the use of military force”

By the way, the concept says a lot about the inadmissibility of sanctions pressure (except for the UN Security Council's decision). Russia believes that it has the right to "take measures of influence and special economic measures against foreign states and their associations, foreign officials, organizations and citizens involved in unfriendly actions against Russian citizens and organizations, as well as in violation of the fundamental rights and freedoms of compatriots living abroad."

Finally, foreign policy orientation. The Kremlin declares the development of partnerships with China, India, and Iran. It is actively entering Africa and working in South America, especially with those "who are under US pressure."

Confrontation with the United States is again declared, but with reservations about the formation and balance of interests. As for the rest of the "Anglo-Saxon states," it's not so scary - the Kremlin makes the level of relations dependent on their willingness to "respect Russia's legitimate interests." The same is true for the European Union: confrontation with the EU in order to reach a regime of coexistence with "respect for Russian interests."

The conclusion is briefly described in the headline - "an aggressive gas station that threatens others" but is looking for partners in the East. If we expand on this, we have a situation in which the key task of the Kremlin's foreign policy is to confirm its status as a superpower. Accordingly, with the ability to aggressively interfere in the affairs of neighboring states. To achieve this status, Russia is ready to continue to maintain a confrontational line with the West. But since its own forces are not enough to confront it, the Kremlin hopes to strengthen cooperation with China and India and work to some extent "on the periphery" of their political interests.

Source

About the author. Ihor Tyshkevych, expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future.

The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.