Russian army is getting depleted, Ukrainian Armed Forces prepare for offensive - military expert Serhiy Zgurets

Defense of Bakhmut

Bakhmut remains the hottest spot on the front line. The occupying Russian forces are trying to attack the city's buildings from the north and south. Its military is not able to advance from the east. Everyone is exhausted now, both the Russian enemy and the Ukrainian defenders. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are waiting for reserves and ammunition. There is a certain pause in Bakhmut today, a lull.

Logistics and connection to Bakhmut are working perfectly well. However, there are areas that the invaders are shooting at. Ukrainian counterattacks have pushed them away from the Kostyantynivka - Ivanivske - Bakhmut road to the north to secure this route. The situation in Bakhmut is difficult, but Ukrainian troops are holding the defense and flanks. The visit of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief to Bakhmut shows that this section of the front has become politically and militarily significant. Most likely, there are all the prerequisites to continue to hold this city from the invasion of the Russians, who are also severely depleted during offensive operations.

Areas of active combat operations

Active hostilities by the Russian army began in five areas a month and a half ago. It was a new offensive in Donbas, aimed at reaching the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. And we see that there are certain changes only in certain areas - around Bakhmut and a little bit near Avdiivka. In all other areas - Svatove, Kreminna, Vuhledar - the Russian enemy is suffering from our active defense actions. They are not advancing in these areas. We can really talk about the exhaustion of Russian capabilities. Most likely, within a short time, two or three weeks, the Russian forces will try to conduct offensive actions in all these areas, using all its reserves.

Then the Russian forces will move to a defense strategy and think about how to change approaches to warfare. Their previous strategy and tactics involving the use of infantry assaults, artillery and armored vehicles in all directions have not worked. This means that they have exhausted their forces and means. Russia will now consider how to get out of this situation. This will be an interesting moment in its further military actions.

The Russian leadership is now avoiding large-scale mobilization. Up to 20,000 personnel are mobilized there every month to compensate for the losses suffered by their army on the front line in manpower and equipment. It can be concluded that Russia is running out of strength, and AFU can expect fundamental changes in the format of warfare.

Re-activation of Russian old tanks

Russia has begun to reactivate tank models that no one has mentioned. These are T-55 and T-54 tanks with 100 mm guns. From the storage base in the Urals, these tanks have been redeployed to repair plants for restoration. The process of repair and modernization begins, which indicates that Russia lacks the initiative associated with T-62 tanks. Variations in the appearance of new tank models in the Russian army are limited.

Let me remind you that the Ukrainian army destroyed 3,500 Russian tanks. This is more than the Russian army had at the beginning of the invasion. Now Russia can produce about 20 new tanks a month and repair another 25. In 2016, the stock of T-54 and T-55 tanks was estimated at 2,500, but pragmatic estimates suggest that Russia can repair about 500 of these tanks. All of this suggests that the Russian army's capabilities to reinforce its forces with armored weapons are low.

Waiting for Abrams tanks in Ukraine

The US side is now stepping up efforts to supply Ukraine with Abrams tanks and Patriot systems. Previously, it was said that these would be Abrams M1A2 versions, which are new tanks, but they need to be manufactured. The American plant produces about 12 new Abrams tanks per month, and everything is scheduled for several years in advance. If Ukraine were to wait for its turn, we would receive the promised 31 tanks or battalion from the United States after 2024. Now it has been decided that Ukraine will receive M1A1 tanks. These tanks are in service with the US Marine Corps and are stored in the US Department of Defense's stockpile of 3,500 tanks. These tanks will be taken from the stockpile, repaired, modernized and transferred to Ukraine. The new M1A1 version is not inferior to the M1A2 version. Ukraine will receive these tanks in the fall of this year. I think we won't get the Abrams tanks in time for the counteroffensive, but they will be used in the future.

Preparing for Ukrainian counteroffensive

Preparing for a counteroffensive is a complex and important issue. Firstly, when we talk about preparing Ukrainian forces and means, we are talking exactly about the forces. We are currently forming new brigades in the Army, Air Assault Forces and Marines. In order not to give away any secrets, I will refer to the publication of The Economist, which states that today Ukraine is forming at least 18 brigades for various purposes, which means that the number of troops can be 60 thousand or more. This is the main fist that is being formed to carry out Ukraine's offensive. But to train these people, we need to use landfills and instructors. It can be said that even Ukraine's polygons and instructors are not enough to train so many personnel quickly. It is known that Ukraine's best instructors have been fighting for a long time, and now we are training Ukraine's soldiers in NATO countries. And we understand that even the experience of NATO instructors may not be quite enough to ensure the most effective training. We know that NATO countries have conducted operations in the format of peacekeeping missions or combat operations in Iraq. This experience is different from that which the Ukrainian army has already gained. However, we are grateful for the assistance we are receiving. The training of these brigades must be carried out effectively enough. In addition to training individual groups, we need to ensure their cohesion, which is another component that takes time.

Now about equipment and weapons. We can say that the West is lagging behind in supplying tanks that are extremely important for us. Despite the fact that the tank coalition has been approved, the delivery of these tanks should be faster.

And the main challenge concerns exactly ammunition, because an offensive operation will require much more munitions than the defensive actions we are currently conducting. Receiving ammunition will be an important prerequisite for preparing an offensive.

When the Czech president says that Ukraine will have one opportunity for a powerful counteroffensive, I think no one knows how it will actually go. Enormous efforts are being made to prepare Ukraine's grouping to carry out a successful offensive. It is clear that this operation will be carried out, but it will not finish the war, but will significantly affect its course. It is the outcome of Ukrainian offensive that will determine the future political background against which negotiations with Russia will be conducted. Of course, if they will be conducted. In any case, there are high expectations for this operation on the part of Ukraine and, of course, on the part of Ukraine's partners, who are trying to provide us with maximum assistance. The main thing is that it should be provided faster.

Truth and myths about depleted uranium shells

Indeed, we are receiving uranium-core shells for Challenger tanks. These shells have better armor penetration than Russian shells, which is why Russia is primarily concerned about them. The Russians started throwing a tantrum that Ukraine was receiving depleted uranium shells. This is despite the fact that the Russian army has such ammunition in its arsenal, but the number of such shells is so limited that even their industry cannot produce enough of them. The self-proclaimed president of Belarus joined Putin's hysteria and began to say delirium, explaining that this goes beyond a normal conflict.

In fact, these munitions are not subject to any restrictions. This is because they do not violate any conventions, do not pose a threat to civilians, except for the enemy who came to Ukrainian land.

We are talking about a projectile core about 1 meter long and 20 cm in diameter, which pierces the tank's armor and provides ignition of the space where the tankers are located. This is a fairly effective way to fight tanks. And instead of a tungsten core, the use of a uranium core is more effective, and this is what makes Western tanks better than Russian tanks.

NATO-caliber shells and systems have more armor penetration than Soviet and Russian models. This is exactly what AFU expects from the ammunition Ukraine will receive with the Leopard, Abrams and Challenger tanks - it will allow the Ukrainian army to destroy Russian tanks at a greater distance and with a higher guarantee that the Russian tank will be dead with one shot.