Espreso. Global
Exclusive

Zgurets assesses risks regarding potential large-scale Russian mobilization

18 March, 2024 Monday
16:10

Serhiy Zgurets, director of Defense Express information and consulting company, highlighted that if Russia declares a large-scale mobilization, it would take until early autumn to assemble somewhat combat-ready forces

Zgurets stated it on Espreso TV.

"We're analyzing the possibility of a large-scale mobilization in Russia and its impact on the front line. This question remains unanswered for now. Currently, the Russian offensive, ongoing since last October across seven directions, has only resulted in the capture of Avdiivka and attempted westward advancement. Our defense line west of Avdiivka is holding, though not without challenges. This falls short of the Russian side's expectations. Despite accumulating forces and attempts to breach our defenses, the invaders haven't made significant headway," he said.

According to him, most experts anticipate Putin will announce a large-scale mobilization. Another group suggests the mobilization will rely on monetary incentives for marginalized Russian groups, potentially gathering 30-45 thousand personnel monthly, sufficient to sustain current hostilities.

"If mobilization is declared, it will take 3-4 months to assemble somewhat combat-capable forces, potentially by early autumn. This is a critical phase for assessment and strategy. Ukraine, in collaboration with partners, is evaluating all risks. Recall the British Defense Minister's suggestion to focus on defensive measures in specific areas and prioritize targeting objects in the Black Sea and Crimea. I would endorse such a strategy if Britain had more cruise missiles for us. Regarding defensive calls, it's a matter of assessment and falls within the expertise of Ukraine's General Staff and Commander-in-Chief," Zgurets emphasized.

Zgurets emphasized the need to enhance our defense-industrial complex to address mobilization concerns in Russia.

"If Russia announces the mobilization of 300,000-400,000 people, we must assess the equipment they'll provide. This gives us time to bolster our defenses, fortify positions, increase weapon stockpiles, including drones, and ramp up production of mortar mines. It's challenging to fully gauge the risks of another Russian offensive now. Our military and political leadership must carefully analyze the situation," stated the military expert.

  • Previously, HUR reported 462,000 Russian ground troops in Ukraine as of January 2024, with the Russian Federation concentrating its ground forces in the region.
  • On March 16, journalist Andriy Tsaplienko revealed that, according to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation's order No. 124 after the so-called presidential elections, Russia plans to mobilize 300,000 residents from the temporarily occupied territories.
     
Tags:
Read also:
  • News
2024, Tuesday
23 April
22:10
Review
Victorious news of 790th day of war: trucks full of wounded Russian soldiers in Mariupol, largest military aid package from Britain
21:49
NATO works on long-term financial support for Ukraine — Stoltenberg
21:35
Ukrainian army repels 59 Russian attacks over last day - General Staff
21:14
Ukrainians thank Slovak people for supporting ammunition fundraising after government refuses to join Czech initiative
20:50
Exclusive
Russia deploys large amount of equipment, personnel to Chasiv Yar - Ukrainian major
20:26
Exclusive
Defense Express explains what presidential drawdown authority is, allowing US to send aid to Ukraine
20:05
Denmark to provide €380mln to Ukraine for critical infrastructure using renewable energy
19:42
Debris clearance continues at Dnipro Hydroelectric Station, no prospect of restoring power sections now - official
19:20
UK sends largest batch of firefighting equipment to Ukraine since 2022
18:57
Defense contracts worth UAH 582 billion finalized, half with Ukrainian manufacturers
18:35
Disinformation threat from Russia, China, Iran exists in European Parliament elections - Metsola
18:13
Exclusive
Insights from 59th brigade officer on situation in Krasnohorivka - Netaylove sector
17:50
Russia attacks Dnipropetrovsk region with missiles, injuring 4 civilians
17:30
Exclusive
Where Russia will attack in near future: Ukrainian colonel suggests
17:08
Ukraine's defensive efforts amidst new Russian threats – NYT
16:45
OPINION
Beijing doesn't believe in Russia's victory over Ukraine
16:23
Russia intensifies construction of fortifications in Crimea due to approval of US aid to Ukraine
16:04
Lithuania hands over new batch of M577 armored vehicles to Ukraine
15:46
British missiles to boost Ukraine's arsenal: what are they?
15:20
Russian army drops bomb on Kostyantynivka in morning, injuring 5 people 
15:01
Largest military aid, Russian assets, peace summit: Zelenskyy speaks with British Prime Minister Sunak
14:40
Exclusive
Following US decision to aid Ukraine, Europe feels like it's their war - former MP Hopko
14:20
Poland is unable to provide Ukraine with Patriot, but will help with other weapons – Tusk
14:00
Ukraine may receive first US package of weapons in April — Ambassador Markarova
13:38
Russia uses new tactics of drone attacks on Ukrainian cities
13:20
OPINION
Lavrov is waving the nuclear baton again. Vitaliy Portnykov's column
13:01
Exclusive
"Three Ural trucks with heavily wounded taken to Novoazovsk": Mariupol official shares details of explosion
12:38
Switzerland freezes over $14 billion of Russian assets
12:15
Review
U.S. should present strategy for Ukraine's victory over Russia. Column by Serhiy Zgurets
11:57
Exclusive
Ukrainian Armed Forces launch first stage of Crimea de-occupation operation – military expert Sniehyrov
11:42
Children injured in Odesa due to Russian drone attack, man wounded in Mykolaiv region
11:23
German government urges US to provide Ukraine with another Patriot system - Bloomberg
10:35
Russia loses air defense systems, 29 artillery systems and 800 soldiers — Ukraine's General Staff 
10:21
$350 million is needed to restore Ukrainian power plants - DTEK director Sakharuk
09:55
Exclusive
Russian troops are actively advancing from Avdiivka to Pokrovsk - Druzhkivka council deputy Dovbnya
09:33
Boats, armored vehicles, air defense, missiles, ammunition: Britain announces largest ever military aid package to Ukraine
2024, Monday
22 April
22:00
Review
Victorious news of 789th day of war: Denmark to send F-16 to Ukraine in summer, Ukrainian forces destroy over 600 drones
21:45
Ukrainian forces repel 53 Russian attacks over day, most in Lyman sector
21:30
Borrell tells when Ukraine may receive first shells under Czech initiative
21:10
Zelenskyy explains why he doesn't believe in 'Olympic truce'
More news