Zgurets assesses risks regarding potential large-scale Russian mobilization

Zgurets stated it on Espreso TV.

"We're analyzing the possibility of a large-scale mobilization in Russia and its impact on the front line. This question remains unanswered for now. Currently, the Russian offensive, ongoing since last October across seven directions, has only resulted in the capture of Avdiivka and attempted westward advancement. Our defense line west of Avdiivka is holding, though not without challenges. This falls short of the Russian side's expectations. Despite accumulating forces and attempts to breach our defenses, the invaders haven't made significant headway," he said.

According to him, most experts anticipate Putin will announce a large-scale mobilization. Another group suggests the mobilization will rely on monetary incentives for marginalized Russian groups, potentially gathering 30-45 thousand personnel monthly, sufficient to sustain current hostilities.

"If mobilization is declared, it will take 3-4 months to assemble somewhat combat-capable forces, potentially by early autumn. This is a critical phase for assessment and strategy. Ukraine, in collaboration with partners, is evaluating all risks. Recall the British Defense Minister's suggestion to focus on defensive measures in specific areas and prioritize targeting objects in the Black Sea and Crimea. I would endorse such a strategy if Britain had more cruise missiles for us. Regarding defensive calls, it's a matter of assessment and falls within the expertise of Ukraine's General Staff and Commander-in-Chief," Zgurets emphasized.

Zgurets emphasized the need to enhance our defense-industrial complex to address mobilization concerns in Russia.

"If Russia announces the mobilization of 300,000-400,000 people, we must assess the equipment they'll provide. This gives us time to bolster our defenses, fortify positions, increase weapon stockpiles, including drones, and ramp up production of mortar mines. It's challenging to fully gauge the risks of another Russian offensive now. Our military and political leadership must carefully analyze the situation," stated the military expert.

• Previously, HUR reported 462,000 Russian ground troops in Ukraine as of January 2024, with the Russian Federation concentrating its ground forces in the region.
• On March 16, journalist Andriy Tsaplienko revealed that, according to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation's order No. 124 after the so-called presidential elections, Russia plans to mobilize 300,000 residents from the temporarily occupied territories.