Will Russia ever run out of weapons? Unlikely, but stocks are dwindling, says CNA think tank

Babel highlights main points of the CNA report.

A recent report from the CNA think tank highlights that Western export controls have failed to cripple Russia’s defense industry, which now finds ways to make or import essential components like microprocessors and machine tools. The sanctions have only "frozen" Russian military development at its current level, the report suggests.

Russia will keep producing the weapons it already makes but lacks the capacity to develop new aircraft, missiles, and armored vehicles, CNA experts explain.

Struggles with high-tech parts

Russia’s defense sector, especially drone and missile manufacturers, feels the pinch of restricted access to modern microchips. While the country stockpiled foreign chips before the Ukraine invasion, domestic production remains limited. Companies like Angström and Micron have failed to produce advanced chips, relying on imports through countries like China and Turkey instead.

The industry also suffers from a shortage of modern CNC machines, essential for precision weapons. With Western suppliers cut off, Russia resorts to buying from China or reverse-engineering foreign models. Companies like Kalashnikov have adapted by creating local versions, though quality issues persist.

Production of Soviet-era weapons

Russia continues to efficiently produce upgraded versions of Soviet-era arms, such as T-72 tanks and Su-30 fighters. These systems, rooted in old designs, remain in demand by both the Russian military and foreign buyers, securing Russia’s place as a major arms exporter.

However, creating new weapons has proven challenging. Flagship projects like the Su-57 fighter and Armata tank face delays due to outdated technology and high defect rates, making reliable mass production difficult.

Missile and drone production amid sanctions

High-precision missiles and kamikaze drones are key in Russia's war against Ukraine. Despite sanctions, Russia still produces drones like the Geran-2, based on Iran’s Shahed-136 model, using Western-made electronics found on the open market. Such components are produced in massive quantities, making it nearly impossible to control their flow completely, the report notes.

While missile production has slowed due to equipment shortages, Russia still manufactures enough to sustain its military actions, though experts suggest it is conserving stock to avoid depleting reserves.

In short, while Russia’s arms industry is hampered by sanctions, it remains functional, though limited in advancing new technology.