War fate to be decided in June

Britain and France have announced the "renewal of the Entente": on the eve of World War I, it was created with three, including Russia, and now it's the opposite, against Russia. London and Paris are convinced that "Ukraine must win the war against Russia." The only thing left is to persuade China of this.

A peace conference on Ukraine is expected to be held in Switzerland on June 16-17. European countries hope that the forum will formulate a common vision of how to end Russia's war against Ukraine. And this “vision” will form the basis of the consensus of the world's largest countries.

At the moment, the world is still far from having a common vision. It is important for the Swiss to drag China to the forum, while President Xi dreams of bringing his pet Putin to Switzerland. The Europeans are against the presence of Russia at the negotiating table, while Beijing is stubbornly resistant.

Recently, Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, flew to Beijing, presumably discussing maneuvering options crucial for the Chinese leader. This comes ahead of the German Chancellor Scholz's visit to Beijing next week and Xi's trip to Paris in early May.

Viewed from the sidelines, the situation may seem optimistic. Macron currently plays the boldest NATO role. Geopolitical setbacks in Africa, where Wagner deprived France of influence over several states, drive the French president towards an anti-Putin stance.

France's leadership is now joined by traditionally dynamic Britain, as they "renew the Entente" to invigorate NATO and unite other nations. "The world closely watches Western countries and will judge them if they fail to provide Ukraine with sufficient support in its confrontation against Moscow," stated the foreign ministers of both countries.

Significant voices at the Swiss forum could come from Global South countries uneasy with China's dominance: India, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and even South Africa. If Ukrainian diplomacy can rally support from this pool of nations, smaller countries may align in support of the Ukrainian formula.

Meanwhile, China has faced numerous trade bans in Europe and is keen on reconciling current conflicts with Brussels, essentially holding only one card in hand — its favorite pet from the Kremlin.

On the other hand, the expected rapprochement between China and European leaders has caused considerable concern in the White House. The U.S. Secretary of State Blinken personally rushed to Paris last week to slow down the East-West convergence. American diplomats suggest that nothing good will come out of these contacts for Ukraine.

We have solid support, but it's a very bad time for formulating a peace plan. Because the decision of the U.S. Congress on providing aid to Ukraine plays an important, if not key role at that forum: without weapons on the front, the pro-Ukrainian coalition will have a choice only between a bad option and an even worse one, wrote The Washington Post.

About the author. Orest Sokhar, journalist, editor-in-chief of Obozrevatel

The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.