What challenges lie ahead for South Korea in supporting Ukraine

The Resurgam Telegram channel explains.

According to the Resurgam Telegram channel, the visit of Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov on November 27 signals a positive development in Ukraine-South Korea relations. Umerov met with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, the Defense Minister, and the National Security Adviser, though the specifics of these discussions remain undisclosed. However, it’s easy to surmise the key issues the Ukrainian side likely raised during these high-level talks.

The series of meetings is a strong indication that a process is unfolding, but the critical question remains: where will this process lead?

Several factors, however, are negatively affecting the momentum of this process:

1. Legislative changes required: For South Korea to provide weapons to Ukraine, the country would need to amend its own legislation. While there is a potential route via the president's exclusive powers, this could spark opposition criticism of power abuse. The South Korean opposition has already warned the Defense Minister of potential backlash if the president attempts to bypass legislative processes.
2. Political instability: The current South Korean president does not command a majority in parliament, which complicates any significant policy shift, such as arms provision to Ukraine.
3. Government vulnerability: The South Korean government is in a delicate position due to ongoing scandals, and any move to supply weapons to Ukraine would likely be leveraged by the opposition to undermine the president’s standing or even challenge his removal.
4. Opposition's Moscow ties: The South Korean opposition maintains close contacts with Moscow, including through South Korean ambassadors to Russia. These ambassadors are actively promoting the narrative that South Korea should avoid provoking Russia to prevent conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
5. Public opinion: Public sentiment in South Korea is not in favor of aiding Ukraine militarily. A survey found that 82% of South Koreans oppose sending weapons to Ukraine for various reasons, with only 18% supporting such a move.
6. U.S. election outcomes: South Korea’s security policy is heavily influenced by its alliance with the United States. As a result, the trajectory of U.S.-South Korea relations, particularly with Trump and his administration, will play a significant role in shaping any decisions regarding support for Ukraine.

Given these challenges, any support for Ukraine from South Korea, especially from the president, comes with substantial political risks.

On a more positive note, the Korean president’s rhetoric has become more assertive since the NATO summit, with a shift toward a more pro-Ukraine stance, particularly regarding information-sharing and recognizing shared security threats. These developments suggest a growing positive opinion within the presidential office, though the government remains constrained by political, security, and traditional policy factors, as well as Russia’s ongoing efforts to derail the process.

Given these conditions, some likely options for South Korea to assist Ukraine while mitigating risks to its government include:

1. Weapon supplies via third countries: A circular exchange arrangement where weapons are sent through intermediary nations.
2. Financial aid: Providing financial assistance to Ukraine rather than direct military support, which could be discreetly funneled into Ukraine's defense industry without triggering public backlash.
3. Weapon discounts and prioritized supplies: Offering discounted military hardware or prioritized supplies to nations that agree to transfer their existing stockpiles to Ukraine.
4. Military soft loans: Extending loans to Ukraine for military purchases.

While the intensity of contacts with South Korea has increased, the Resurgam Telegram channel concludes that achieving a final result remains difficult due to the complex dynamics at play.