Kellogg's plan: “Korean scenario”

He offers a conditional plan to end the war in Ukraine based on several key provisions:

1. Continued arms supplies to Ukraine only if it agrees to negotiate with Russia.
2. Warning Moscow that refusal to negotiate will lead to increased U.S. support for Ukraine.
3. Removal of the issue of Ukraine's membership in NATO from the agenda for the near future.

This plan aligns perfectly with Trump's vision for the U.S., but how realistic is it? So far, it seems to lack substance.

1. Ukraine's position: Ukraine will not proceed without solid security guarantees. Rejecting NATO membership would also pose a significant political challenge, at the very least. Moreover, Ukraine has the option to continue its resistance with European support.

2. Russia's position: I do not believe Moscow's statements that they are not ready for a freeze. I don't believe any of Moscow's statements. They may agree to a freeze, but only if faced with a compelling reason—essentially, if they are genuinely fearful of refusing. For this to happen, Trump's threats would need to be exceptionally significant.

Therefore, without significant pressure on Russia—and considering that unilateral pressure on Ukraine only would reflect poorly even on Trump—this plan is likely to be postponed indefinitely.

For Ukraine to consider such a plan, strict security guarantees are needed.

1. Legally binding agreements with the United States, NATO, or other countries that provide for automatic military assistance in the event of a violation of the agreements by Russia.
2. Increasing Ukraine's defense capabilities. Even if hostilities cease, Ukraine must be able to deter potential aggression on its own, which requires a guaranteed supply of aircraft and other sophisticated equipment. 

We need at least one of the following.

In fact, if this is realized, we have a classic “Korean scenario”. Separation of the parties without official peace + no solution. The Kellogg plan, like the Korean scenario, does not resolve the issue of territorial integrity, but only creates a temporary status quo. Perhaps until the fall of the Putin regime, perhaps until an indefinite time in the future. 

If this approach is implemented in one form or another, each side can declare itself a winner. Ukraine would retain its independence, and Russia would gain control of its territories. 

In reality, neither country will emerge as a true winner. Even if some sanctions are lifted, Russia will struggle to fully recover from the consequences of the war, leaving Putin's regime in a precarious position. Meanwhile, Ukraine will face prolonged dissatisfaction with the war's outcomes and a gradual process of addressing its aftermath. This situation is reminiscent of South Korea's experience during the challenging 1950s. However, Ukraine's recovery may be somewhat less arduous, as it is not among the world's poorest nations.

That said, even this scenario remains a distant prospect.

Source

About the author. Yuriy Bohdanov, publicist, specialist in strategic communications in business, public administration and politics

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.