Ukraine expands its long-range strike arsenal, strikes Russian targets. Serhiy Zgurets’ column

Night strikes on Russian targets

I’ll start the update with good news: on the night of December 11, Ukraine's Defense Forces successfully struck two targets in Russia with missile and drone attacks. The first target was a section of the Druzhba oil pipeline near Bryansk, approximately 111 km away. The second target was an aviation plant in Taganrog, located 150-160 km from the front line. In Taganrog, the strike targeted the Beriev Aviation Scientific-Technical Complex, which services A-50 aircraft that Ukraine has previously destroyed. The facility is also used as a base for Russia's Orion UAVs, which have also been downed by Ukrainian forces.

What was used to strike these Russian targets? In Taganrog, photos show remnants of ATACMS missile stages. As for the Bryansk strike, it was likely carried out by long-range Ukrainian drones.

Ukraine expands its 'strike' arsenal

We know that Ukraine is currently expanding its 'strike' arsenal. There is the Peklo cruise missile or missile drone, officially unveiled on December 6 by the President of Ukraine. Additionally, the Palianytsia has already entered serial production, as announced by Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Another development has been revealed - the Ruta missile. On December 10, during the presentation of Ukraine’s national Boris Paton Prize, Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ruta is undergoing successful testing. No further details about the missile were provided, but it is known that the Ruta project is the result of work by the European company Destinus.

Destinus is a Swiss company founded by Russian national Mikhail Kokorich, who initially moved from Russia to the U.S. and later relocated to Europe. Since 2021, the company has been involved in defense projects. It was reported that Destinus supplied Ukraine last year with a number of Lord strike drones, which have a range of 750 to 2,000 km.

We know that Ruta is a rocket-powered drone with a flight range of about 300 km and a speed of 500-600 km/h. The drone’s tasks can be both strike and reconnaissance missions. Ruta launches using a rocket booster and can land via parachute if it’s the reconnaissance version. For the strike version, it can carry various payloads ranging from 20 to 100 kg, depending on the specific modification’s requirements.

Ruta features a traditional missile layout with a warhead, fixed wings, fuel tank, electronics, and a turbojet engine. This year, the missile was also showcased at the Eurosatory exhibition, where it had some differences. It was displayed on the stand of the Ukrainian company 'SpetsTechnoExport.'

Additionally, it's worth noting that Destinus has many interesting projects, one of which is a hypersonic aircraft powered by hydrogen, currently undergoing testing. The developers claim this aircraft can travel from Australia to Europe in just 4 hours. This represents a truly promising direction in utilizing hydrogen in hypersonic technologies.

Destinus also has other projects that could greatly enhance Ukraine’s defense capabilities. It’s beneficial that we maintain close contacts with our partners who can produce similar weapon systems.

So we know that Ukraine has Palianytsia, Peklo, and Ruta - these are drone missiles or cruise missiles. There’s also the Neptune cruise missile with an extended range, which is also used against Russians. Additionally, there are operational-tactical missile projects mentioned by Ukrainian military-political leadership. These missiles are capable of reaching up to 800 km and have practical applications. Of course, there are also long-range drones with a range of up to 1800 km.

With mass production and effective, systematic use, these will be crucial components for deterring Russia and inflicting significant damage deep within their territory without usage limitations, as often seen with foreign-made weapons.

Potential guarantees for Ukraine

Valentyn Badrak, director of the non-governmental analytical organization Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies, noted that Ukrainians are generally aware of the increasing tension. However, a paradoxical situation is emerging where Russia's tactical pressure has yet to translate into operational-depth successes. Challenges and losses are expected to continue at least until January 21, 2025.

However, this does not mean that everything will end on January 21, as tactical issues and strategic potential are entirely different dimensions. This may be driving the Kremlin toward such tactical assaults, as the current strategic outlook is not in its favor. The use of nuclear weapons is practically impossible due to several factors: China and India, which would immediately cut any support for Russia, and the U.S. and the West, for whom this is also a red line. The use of tactical nuclear weapons would resolve nothing on the battlefield, while the use of strategic nuclear weapons poses a threat to Russia itself. We acknowledge the tactical challenges on the front and the strategic prospects after January 21, 2025. How things will unfold remains to be seen, but it is clear the Kremlin is deeply afraid of this.

The analyst believes that tangible, real weaponry today can achieve more than political rhetoric and statements from politicians about formally inviting Ukraine to NATO, as membership in the alliance is unlikely to resolve much for Ukraine in the coming year. The U.S. possesses powerful weapons, and here the discussion is about new options - not ATACMS, but PrSM (Precision Strike Missiles), which have been supplied to the U.S. military since 2021. Manufacturer Lockheed Martin reports having three contracts in 2024 alone for an order of 4,000 missiles, with a base range of 500 km and an extended range of up to 650 km.

Currently, two companies, Raytheon Technologies and Northrop Grumman, are working on extending the fourth version of this missile to a range of up to 1,000 km. Ukraine needs several hundred of these missiles, which are compatible with HIMARS systems. Additionally, these missiles cannot be intercepted by Russian air defense systems, providing the capability to strike major missile production facilities within Russia.

The director of the "Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies" noted that, in addition to PrSM, there is also military-technical cooperation, meaning companies like Raytheon Technologies and Northrop Grumman could provide technological solutions for a Ukrainian ballistic missile. While Ukraine is independently developing a ballistic missile, it could simultaneously focus on incorporating Western technologies. It would be a reasonable proposal and demand for Ukraine to request the U.S. to provide the necessary technologies. Regarding guarantees or safeguards against a renewed Russian war, an invitation to NATO is, of course, appealing and significant, but even more so would be the deployment of Typhon missile systems in Ukraine. These are systems the U.S. initially intended to station in Germany.

Badrak reminded that a few years ago, Typhon systems were adapted to launch Raytheon Tomahawk and Raytheon Standard SM-6 missiles. The Tomahawk has a range of 2,500 km, capable of striking all Russian missile factories if necessary. The Standard SM-6 is a unique anti-aircraft missile with a ceiling of 34 km and a range of 240 km, and in its ‘ground-to-ground’ version, it has a range of 460 km. Moreover, these missiles could be leased in case Putin initiates another war. Such systems could act as a deterrent, preventing the Kremlin from daring to launch another strategic attack.