Ukraine could withdraw from Kursk, but not from Luhansk, Donetsk. Vitaly Portnikov column

The Financial Times cites its Russian sources, who hope that this time it will be easier for the Presidents of the United States and the Russian Federation to reach an agreement on NATO-related issues than it was in 2022.

As is known, ahead of the so-called large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded that Washington and other NATO member capitals guarantee that Ukraine and other former Soviet republics would never join the Alliance, and that modern Western weapons be removed from the territories of countries that joined NATO in 1997 and later.

The United States administration, of course, disagreed with such demands from Russian President Vladimir Putin. They considered that these proposals themselves questioned the sovereignty of NATO member countries and the Alliance's right to decide who should be its member. However, as is known, U.S. President Donald Trump, like many of his associates, rules out the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO.

Moreover, at his sensational press conference at Mar-a-Lago, Donald Trump even stated that he understood Russian President Vladimir Putin's emotions regarding what he called a violation by his predecessor, Joe Biden, of some agreement that was supposed to guarantee Ukraine's non-membership in NATO.

Of course, no such agreement ever existed, but the fact that Donald Trump talks about understanding the Russian leader's anxiety raises hope in the Kremlin that this time Washington may indeed guarantee that Ukraine will never become a member of the North Atlantic Alliance. As for the other former Soviet republics, that's not even on the table.

However, the following question arises: what about the withdrawal of modern weapons from the territories of countries that joined NATO in 1997? Sources quoted by the Financial Times believe that progress could be made here as well, but for a completely different reason. After 2022, it became abundantly clear that the Russian army, with its conventional weapons, is unable to defeat the armies of NATO member states.

For three years, this army has failed to meet even the smallest demands of its Supreme Commander-in-Chief, Vladimir Putin, who ordered the Russian Armed Forces to take control of all the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the so-called independence of which was recognized in February 2022 and later annexed by the Russian Federation. However, it is already 2025, and Russian forces have not yet established control over all of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Moreover, the Russian army is now trying to regain control over the territory of the Kursk region and has failed to gain control over two other Ukrainian regions, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, where it advanced after 2022. In the Kherson region, Russian troops even had to retreat from positions in the regional center.

Thus, it can be said that for NATO member countries, it is absolutely clear that Russia can only harm the North Atlantic Alliance through the use of nuclear weapons. However, no one, obviously, wants a nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia — neither Donald Trump nor Vladimir Putin.

This leads to the question: if Putin truly offers Trump the withdrawal of some American weapons or even military bases from territories bordering the Russian Federation, why wouldn’t the American president agree to this demand from the Russian leader? After all, it essentially doesn’t change much. NATO member armies would still, in terms of conventional weapons, be far more effective than the Russian army. And from where the Alliance’s forces are located, nothing would fundamentally change. Well, this is, of course, from the Russian perspective.

Another fact is absolutely clear: if modern weapons are not stationed in countries like Poland and the Baltic states, it would make it easier for Russian armed forces to occupy at least part of these countries. Additionally, Russia’s possession of nuclear weapons would prevent the rapid redeployment of American reserves, say, from Western Europe to the Baltic or Central European countries.

But the Russians keep hoping that they can convince Donald Trump that such an agreement would be acceptable for ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. The problem is that this list of Vladimir Putin’s demands to Donald Trump is not exhaustive.

As is known, the Russian leader is willing to discuss ending the war with Ukraine, or at least suspending it, only if Ukraine agrees to withdraw its forces from the parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions that are still under the control of the legitimate Ukrainian government. In other words, to recognize the legitimacy of Russia's territorial claims to Ukraine. This would mean acknowledging that Russia's decision to annex Ukrainian regions is in line with international law. So far, there is no confirmation that anyone in Donald Trump's administration would agree to this Russian demand, which would effectively amount to a true capitulation to Russia's efforts. The new American president, when talking about the possibility of ending the conflict, was referring solely to a ceasefire.

A ceasefire is conceivable along the line of troop contact: one could imagine a scenario where Ukrainian forces withdraw from Russia's Kursk region, and Russian forces leave Ukraine's Kharkiv region. This is simply because Ukraine recognizes Russia's territorial integrity in Kursk, and Russia continues to acknowledge Kharkiv as part of sovereign Ukraine. However, imagining Ukrainian forces withdrawing from Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Luhansk regions — when the entire world recognizes them as Ukrainian territories — is entirely impossible and unacceptable, fitting no concept of a ceasefire. Thus, if Putin does not abandon his maximalist demands, there is no realistic prospect for agreements with Donald Trump, even if the American president were to accept Russia's logic regarding NATO.

As a result, the possibility of ending the Russia-Ukraine war in the foreseeable future — or even finding a feasible model for a ceasefire between the Russian and Ukrainian armies — remains as elusive as ever, even after Donald Trump is elected the new president of the United States.

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About the author. Vitaly Portnikov, journalist, laureate of Ukraine's Shevchenko National Prize.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.