German election forecast: impact on Ukraine

The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel discussed the issue.

A bit of sociology on the German elections:

• Alternative for Germany (AfD) rating has slightly risen due to recent events, including terrorist attacks in Germany and Musk's interventions, but remains below 2023 levels.
• Sahra Wagenknecht, seen as a pro-Moscow figure, may miss parliament as her support has fallen to 4-4.5% from 10-11% over the past six months.
• The Greens are regaining ground in the polls.
• The Free Democrats party slightly improved but still hasn't crossed the parliamentary threshold.
• Habeck (Greens) and Merz (Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union) have the highest voter support as the most preferred new chancellor, each with 27%.
• Scholz and Weidel (AfD chancellor candidate) trail significantly with 14% and 15%, respectively.

Implications for Ukraine

Among several possible coalitions in the German parliament, the best scenario for Ukraine would be a coalition between the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union and the Greens.

The majority of voters oppose alliances with the Alternative for Germany (AfD), with 7 in 10 from Merz's party and 9 in 10 from Scholz's and Habeck's parties rejecting such coalitions.

For all traditional German parties, even considering the idea of "cooperating with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) at the federal level" is equivalent to political suicide, which is a positive development for Ukraine.