Russian forces outflank Pokrovsk to cut logistics, avoiding urban combat - military expert

Pavlo Lakiychuk, head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies Strategy XXI and a retired Ukrainian Navy captain, reported this on Espreso TV.

"The Russians are acting consistently, though not without difficulty. Pokrovsk is a logistics hub for our entire military group to the north and northeast of Pokrovsk. This includes Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, rear areas, and further on Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, the frontline. All logistics go through Pokrovsk. Russians are primarily trying to cut these supply chains. A month or two ago, Russian forces attempted this by attacking from the front between Myrnohrad and even further north of Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk. Now, active attempts to cut the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka route have resumed. They are also trying to disrupt logistics at the entrance to Pokrovsk. The Russian army is now approaching the Pokrovsk-Mezhova road. While this may not be a critically important road, the railway route is of significant value," he noted.

Russians are currently advancing toward the Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad direction, attempting to encircle Pokrovsk and cut logistics without engaging in heavy urban combat. However, given the determined resistance of Ukrainian defenders, they may become bogged down in urban battles for Pokrovsk if they fail to outflank it.

A Russian offensive toward the Dnipropetrovsk region is unlikely, according to Lakiychuk, as it would require significantly larger resources.

"If Russians capture Pokrovsk, they could move toward Kostiantynivka, but that would also demand substantial resources. Fighting would then intensify not only near Pokrovsk but also in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. They are also advancing from the north toward Lyman. This indicates that, in the coming months, if Russia can sustain its operational-level offensive, northern Donetsk could become a battlefield. The situation there is very complex, but Russian losses are so severe that doubts arise about their ability to muster sufficient operational reserves," the military expert concluded.