Trump's return could impact Russia's strength, but threats to Ukraine may rise. Serhiy Zgurets' column

U.S. elections

Donald Trump has already claimed victory and announced his intention to "end all wars." While he didn’t mention the war in Ukraine specifically in his recent speech, he’s previously vowed to end it within 24 hours if re-elected. Whether we should start counting down now is still up for debate.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy congratulated Trump on his win, highlighting appreciation for Trump's "peace through strength" stance. Zelenskyy believes this approach could help achieve a fair peace in Ukraine. This concept of "peace through strength" is central to Trump’s campaign and aligns with strategies from the Heritage Foundation, a Republican-aligned think tank. Their recent report outlined U.S. defense priorities, focusing on countering China as a primary threat while scaling back in Europe and the Middle East.

For Ukraine, the report suggests hitting Russia hard and recommends weapon support for Ukraine. However, it also notes that U.S. resources for Ukraine may be limited, urging European allies to shoulder more responsibility. This vision is part of the Republican defense review, although how it translates to concrete actions by the new administration remains uncertain. But the trend is clear.

Challenges and opportunities with Trump’s arrival

Military expert Mykhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, analyzed the challenges and new opportunities for Ukraine with the shift in U.S. leadership, especially considering internal factors that could stabilize society.

"We analyzed just how realistic it is that many Ukrainian experts saw Trump’s arrival as a disaster. We looked at reports from the Heritage Foundation and other Republican-aligned think tanks. Despite the concerns, there are actually solid opportunities to resist Russia’s aggression, and maybe even push toward victory. Trump's strategy will largely focus on pressuring China — launching a trade war with tariffs as high as 60% on all Chinese imports. Another key point is dominating the oil market, allowing U.S. producers to ramp up output. This could drop oil prices, hitting Russia hard and limiting its war budget. Even with sanctions, Russia makes hundreds of billions annually from oil sales. Lower oil prices could choke its war efforts, cut funds for North Korean soldiers, and squeeze its ability to buy Western tech through back channels," he explained.

Trump’s agenda could open new paths on the front lines, but it’ll likely take at least six months, and challenges will only mount in the meantime.

"Trump has promised to try to end the war, including calling Zelenskyy and Putin for an immediate ceasefire, followed by negotiation attempts. Right now, though, Putin’s not interested in talks, and Trump will need more leverage to push him there. As long as oil prices remain unaffected, Russia will keep fighting. Plus, Putin often intensifies attacks to gain an upper hand before any negotiations. So, in the months before the inauguration and during any potential talks, we can expect more attacks on Ukrainian cities and more front-line activity. In short, we need to focus now on our internal victory strategy," he said.

Ukraine's Domestic Victory Plan

In Ukraine, there’s an organization called the Defense Information Consortium. It’s an alliance of analytical groups, including the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, Defense Express consulting, the New Geopolitical Research Network, and experts from the National Institute for Strategic Studies. Within this consortium, a report titled Vision of Defense Aspects of the Domestic Victory Plan has been crafted. This report aims to help authorities pinpoint critical vulnerabilities affecting societal resilience and offer recommendations to boost the Defense Forces' efficiency. The report has already been submitted to experts at the National Security and Defense Council, where suggestions from non-governmental organizations are being integrated. We believe our work will be a valuable addition to this joint effort.

Details of Vision of Defense Aspects of the Domestic Victory Plan will be unveiled at an international event next week in Kyiv, attended by representatives from various European nations. The focus will be on collaboration with Europe, particularly Poland, to strengthen defense-industrial ties and military cooperation.

Countering foreign aggression is a challenge not only for Ukraine but also for NATO and Eastern European countries. This document, along with the work of other Ukrainian NGOs, plays a crucial role in uniting society, bolstering stability, and pursuing structural changes within the Armed Forces to enhance combat effectiveness.

Samus outlined the main challenges facing Ukraine today — factors the country’s military-political leadership should consider to find ways to improve the current situation.

"When we analyzed the threats facing Ukraine, we saw that Zelenskyy's Victory Plan, presented to our partners, had a primarily external focus. A lot depended on our partners — such as Ukraine's accession to NATO and support for strikes on Russian territory. So, we turned our attention to identifying internal issues, which are well-known and frequently discussed but have seen limited engagement from the authorities. These issues include mobilization, communication strategies, fortification weaknesses, the organizational structure of the armed forces, debates on shifting to a divisional structure, the defense-industrial sector, procurement, and even Ukraine's nuclear doctrine. Discussing these openly helps us pinpoint problems, communicate effectively, and find ways to address challenges," he said.

The recommendations developed seem logical and practical for improving the situation. They call for changes in the Armed Forces' structure, mobilization, and the defense-industrial sector, including the creation of a reform center. The dialogue among experts, analysts, and officials is a valuable process. This is the kind of engagement that sets the stage for real change. Without such discussions, it’s impossible to confirm whether proposed reforms are genuinely relevant or if we might be misdirected.

"There can be multiple levels to this work. For example, I believe the Ministry of Defense should regain its role as a strategic planning body. When we discuss strategic planning and the development of conceptual approaches to all these issues, it makes sense for the Ministry of Defense to lead the process. Of course, the National Security and Defense Council, the President's Office, which supports the Commander-in-Chief, as well as the Armed Forces' General Staff, the Verkhovna Rada, relevant committees, and various analysts should be involved too. If we’re talking about coordinating this effort, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief may want to engage — perhaps through the President’s Office or the National Security Council. If the Ministry of Defense takes on this role, it would be ideal, as they have the best insight into military operations, logistics, and support. It would be an effective approach," the military expert concluded.