Espreso. Global
OPINION

There may be a revolution in Russia or something similar

27 February, 2024 Tuesday
13:20

As of now, one-third of Russians perceive that the trajectory of events is veering in the wrong direction, marking a 9% increase compared to December 2022. Although 60% continue to think that everything will be fine

I remember that during the Revolution of Dignity, we never heard anything about how the Berkut and soldiers of the Internal Troops were doing. They didn't write posts, didn't make tik-toks about their lives. And we often thought that everything was fine with them. When they started to crumble and run away en masse, I found out from a few of those caught that their situation was simply catastrophic.

Thus, during the assault on December 11, which lasted 8 hours, Berkut members urinated in their pants, got frostbite and then were treated en masse. The Internal Troops officers said that they had not seen a shower or changed their underwear for weeks, and had been sleeping on the floor in the corridors of the Cabinet of Ministers for months. And they honestly said that they no longer had the strength to stand against the Maidan. But we didn't think so on the eve of the breakdown.

Thanks to IKAR’s new poll, we can see a little bit of how the Russians are feeling.

Here are the key figures:

  • 40% put the problem of low salaries and pensions in the first place, while in December 2022, only 25% saw this problem;
  • 22% recognized the "separatist movement" as a priority problem, while in December 2022, it was 50%. This is direct evidence that Russian society feels the war very strongly;
  • 31% believe that things are heading in the wrong direction, up 9% from December 2022. However, 60% continue to think that everything will be fine. (I will further consider this topic in comparison with our indicators);
  • 74% are against a new wave of mobilization, and this is a very telling figure, given that in December 2022, only 60% were;
  • 16% believe that there should be no limits in the "special military operation", and this is a huge change, because in December 2022, the number of such people was 48%;
  • 39% said they had friends who were killed in the "special military operation", while in December 2022, the number was 21%. And here is another interesting answer, confirming the scale of Russian losses: 40% said they had no one they knew killed, but in December 2022, there were 69% of them!
  • 34% said that it was not worth starting the "special military operation", while in February 2023, only 21% of them did. Moreover, 40% disagree that the “special military operation” is going according to plan, while a year ago there were 27% of them.

What does this data suggest? Despite Putin's efforts to pretend like it is, the situation doesn't appear victorious for them. There's no sense of "victory" within Russian society. Even if we perceive them as mere animals, they are still very, very hurt. The data doesn't hint at the possibility of revolution in Russia. However, it does support my key thesis: the current war will persist until one side collapses, and there are good chances that it will be them. If, of course, we make an effort not to fall first.

Some of you may say: Putin doesn't give a f*ck about public opinion. No, he does. He bases his speeches on it. After all, the last person in Russia who didn’t give a sh*t about public opinion was Tsar Nicholas II.

Source

About the author. Victor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst and publicist

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.

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