Ukraine’s strikes on ammo depots poise Russia to face shell crisis - Estonian intelligence

Colonel Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre, stated this, ERR reports.

"In the Russian Federation's full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine, Russia's Armed Forces are still maintaining the initiative across the entire front line. The intensity of fighting remains particularly high in the Donetsk region, where Russia has also seen some tactical success. It is a similar case in the Luhansk region," he said, adding that about 50% of all hostilities are taking place in the Donetsk region.

"The primary focus of combat operations is south of Pokrovsk, towards the areas of Selydove and Kurakhove. At the same time, the Russian Federation is maintaining heavy combat pressure, using mechanized, battalion-sized assault groups in the direction of Kupyansk and Lyman, where the likely goal is to secure tactical positions along the Oskil and Siverskyi Donets rivers," Kiviselg stressed.

He also noted that Russian units may have been ordered to increase the pace of fighting to achieve tactical objectives before the start of the rainy season.

The colonel suggested that Russia is preparing conditions for the possible unification of the South Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia fronts, but the Russians are unlikely to have enough resources to achieve this goal quickly.

At the same time, Kiviselg noted that the experience of 2023 shows that the rainy season is not always a serious obstacle to the offensive actions of Russian troops, so such operations can continue after the onset of cold weather.

He also noted that Russia is increasingly dependent on North Korea's assistance to continue fighting.

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to carry out drone attacks on Russian territory, including on ammunition depots.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces struck the central missile and artillery depot in Karachev, Bryansk region. According to open sources, it was storing ammunition from North Korea. This is the fourth depot destroyed by drone attacks, the colonel reminded.

Attacks on Russian military depots are likely to continue, further complicating the situation with the lack of ammunition, Kiviselg said.

• On the night of September 18, a fire and detonation started at an ammunition depot in Toropets, Tver region, as a result of a drone attack. A partial evacuation of the population was announced in the region.
• Ivan Kyrychevskyi, a military expert at Defense Express, said that explosions of the magnitude that took place on September 18 in the Tver region had never been seen in world military history.