Espreso. Global

Russia's ability to sustain losses in Ukraine stretches for years, analysts say

16 February, 2024 Friday
18:44

War analysts suggest that Russia can endure significant losses in Ukraine for another two to three years, fueled by its ability to meet recruitment quotas and maintain equipment levels, according to reports from the Institute for the Study of War and the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

Business Insider writes about it. 

The RUSI report indicates that Russian forces are likely to sustain consistent attacks until the end of 2024, with the ISW extending this estimate to 2025.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies emphasizes that despite monthly losses of armored vehicles, Russia's capacity to produce and store new equipment could sustain operations.

"Russia is making enough new tanks, fighting vehicles, and other equipment," the report states.

The conflict sees Russia facing casualties in "meat assaults," killing dozens of infantrymen at a time. Recruiters, however, meet 85% of their quotas, making the losses sustainable, as per RUSI.

The ISW highlights two crucial factors determining Russia's future military actions: its ability to generate combat-ready units and Ukraine's defenses.

Ukraine has repelled Russian forces with Western aid, but without continuous support, challenges may arise, warns RUSI.

The ISW notes that Russia's recruitment rates may not suffice for intense offensives, and the conflict appears to be in a stalemate, with Russian units fighting beyond effective combat levels.

"Russian soldiers usually carry out limited tactical attacks until they have lost as much as 30% of their personnel," notes RUSI, a tactic impacting combat effectiveness.

Successful offensive operations may require deploying well-equipped units at scale, but historical patterns suggest Russia faces challenges in doing so, the analysts conclude.
 

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