Russian offensive, predicted for summer, is already underway. Column by Serhiy Zgurets

Situation at the front

When it comes to the Russian offensive that is predicted for the summer, given the number of attacks on the front line, we can assume that this offensive is already underway. According to Ukraine's General Staff, Russia has significantly increased the number of attacks. Thus, on April 28, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 131 Russian attacks. About a month ago, we talked about 70-80 offensive attempts, and now there are 131 Russian attacks. Moreover, 55 of them, almost half of them, took place in the Avdiivka direction or it is also called the Pokrovsk direction. This direction is one of the possible directions of Russia's aspirations.

Taking into account not only the number of attacks but also more in-depth assessments, they were presented by the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi on his Telegram channel. These are the first assessments from a military leader in several difficult weeks on the front line. The Commander-in-Chief emphasizes that the situation at the front has escalated. The Russian army is trying to seize the strategic initiative and break through the front line. To do this, Russia has focused its main efforts on several areas, creating a significant advantage in forces and means.

The most difficult situation is in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions. Speaking of the Pokrovsk direction, I would like to remind you that Russia managed to push through Ukraine's defense near Ocheretyne. The Russian army is also expanding its bridgehead there from Novobakhmutivka and Novokalynove, and is also moving towards Novooleksandrivka, all around Ocheretyne.

According to Syrskyi's estimates, Russia has brought up to 4 brigades here. This is a certain advantage in numbers over Ukrainian brigades in this area. Now Russia's troops are trying to develop an offensive to the west of Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops have withdrawn from the Berdychi-Semenivka village line, which they held for the last 2 months after leaving Avdiivka. Ukraine's defense is now moving westward.

Currently, Ukraine's forces are being planned to withdraw to the defense line in the area of the Karlivka reservoir and along the Vovcha River. This line of defense will probably be the main one that runs through the settlements of Prohres, Komyshivka and Karlivka. Russia's presence in the village of Ocheretyne, which is the dominant height, tempts the Russian troops to either make its way further west to Pokrovsk or move north, which also offers an alternative route for them towards the Donetsk-Konstiantynivka highway. But all of these movements and attempts by Russia will depend on what capabilities it has. However, now Russia is transferring reinforcements from other directions. These 55 clashes over the past day are a sign that this area is extremely important for the Russian enemy.

Petro Chernyk, military expert, Ukrainian Armed Forces colonel, noted that everything that is happening on the eastern foothold now has a deep political coloration, because Putin will be self-reappointed, or rather inaugurated on May 7. We are also very well aware of the "victory" hysteria on the agenda. After Avdiivka, which they have been going through for 10 years, they have no strategic successes. They need at least some success. Will it be possible to realize the most important task of capturing Chasiv Yar by the declared dates? No. Why? It's a hill, there is a network of canals from the Siverskyi Donets, where everything is very well fortified. The only way to stop the threat is with weapons, and first of all with long-range artillery with ammunition. The good news is that the first $1 billion package already includes GBU-12 and GBU-8 bombs with the JDAM system, which can strike up to 110 km in glide mode. One F-16 carries at least 6 such bombs. If this really started working, we could already be cautiously optimistic.

The military expert commented on the threat that the Russian army poses in the Kharkiv direction, saying that he shares the view of most analysts who say that there are no signs of a real deployment of a large corps of the Russian army. Because for Russia to fight for Kharkiv, they have to travel a good 40 kilometers. And such a corps should be at least 40,000 strong, which requires 825 tanks and 2,500 armored vehicles, as well as up to a thousand artillery pieces. 40 thousand will not be enough, they need at least 80 thousand. They do not have such a potential now. They have about 20 thousand resources concentrated there. Ukraine's northern territory is very well fortified and mined. If Russia leaves, it will leave by road, and we have learned how to work with roads. But at the same time, you can expect anything from the crazies. There is no really big striking fist that could threaten Kharkiv yet.

As for Russia's reserves, the Armed Forces colonel said that they would build them up, and announced the creation of 11 new divisions, 16 mechanized brigades and 2 combined arms armies. One full-time division is 12.5 thousand personnel, a brigade - up to 5 thousand. If these figures are multiplied, it will be up to 300 thousand. Do they have a strategic mobilization resource? Yes, they do. The Russians declare from one and a half to three million men in the mobilization reserve, and there are hundreds of thousands, if not a million, of Kalashnikovs in stock. In general, more than a hundred million of these weapons have been produced; of course, these hundred million are not in stock, nevertheless, these weapons are there. The ammunition and shell factories are 100% full, and by the way, the production of shells in Russia has increased to about 30% since the beginning of the war, but they will not be able to do so anymore because of problems with explosives. In his opinion, this mass of people will most likely be put into service by the fall.

Chernyk added that there is a nuance: every month Ukraine kills between 27,000 and 30,000 Russian soldiers, who also need to be replaced. By the end of the spring, Russia will definitely have losses of 90 thousand personnel. They can't put people back into service as quickly as they would like. If they could, they would not have withdrawn a full-fledged heavy infantry brigade from the Far East and sent it to Ukraine.

A military analyst believes that if Ukraine had at least a thousand ATACMS missiles and F-16s operational, it might have a chance to capture at least the southern bridgehead in the cycle of this dry weather. And the collapse of the southern bridgehead means access to the northern Azov Sea and consolidation, conditionally, somewhere in the Molochnyi Estuary area. In general, the minimum task for this year is to hold the defense line as it is now, and the maximum task is to reach the Molochnyi Estuary, cut the land corridor to Crimea and reach the Perekop Isthmus, and thus strangle Russia's southern bridgehead.