Russia lacks troops for summer offensive in several directions, despite new recruits – ISW

This is stated in the summary by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

As Ukrainian military commentator Kostyantyn Mashovets noted on June 8, Russia mobilizes around 30,000 troops monthly, some of whom reinforce front-line positions. However, this only creates limited operational and strategic reserves.

Mashovets explained that each Russian operational group gets about 1,000 to 1,500 troops monthly, or up to 2,000 for intense operations.

Six Russian military groups operate in and near Ukraine. A military observer estimates Russia gets 6,000 to 12,000 new soldiers monthly.

The report indicates this does not contradict earlier Ukrainian and Russian reports of Russia recruiting 30,000 new troops monthly, as many serve in support roles or, after training, take on combat functions.

ISW analysts have noted a pattern of "pulsation" in Russian offensives, alternating between intense attacks and slower tempos to replenish losses.

The new recruits are likely a factor in this decision to alternate the intensity of operations.

ISW estimates that “planned Russian operational- and strategic-level reserves are unlikely to be ready to act as a first-echelon penetration force or as a second-echelon exploitation force capable of conducting effective large-scale combined arms assaults.”

“These reported limited operational- and strategic-level Russian reserves likely will be insufficient to support simultaneous large-scale offensive efforts in several directions. The Russian military command will likely have to choose one main effort during its expected summer offensive effort, if it intends for these reserves to sustain a large-scale offensive operation," the report said.

• On June 8, 76 combat clashes occurred, and Ukrainian troops repelled 27 Russian attacks in the Pokrovsk direction.